Heyi Liu, Wentao Sun, Shanyou Li, Xueying Zhou, Jindong Song
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引用次数: 0
摘要
在地震预警(EEW)系统中,快速准确地估算地震期间的应急响应参数非常重要。由于地震破裂并非瞬时发生,为了准确、安全、可靠地确定应急响应参数和阈值,本文以累积绝对速度(CAV)为目标参数,以日本 K-NET 和 KiK-net 台站 P 波到达后 3 秒发生的强地震动记录中的 7 个 P 波特征参数为输入,构建了基于支持向量机(SVM)算法的机器学习(ML)CAV 预测模型。结果表明,与单参数预测算法相比,所提出的 ML 模型可显著降低误差标准偏差,并有效解决小值高估和大值低估现象。混淆矩阵分析表明,6参数模型Pa&Pv&Pd&CAV&Ia&IV2在提高预测精度方面表现最佳,为基于阈值的EEW应急响应提供了阈值选择策略。
Cumulative Absolute Velocity (CAV) parameter estimation in earthquake emergency response based on a support vector machine
Rapid and accurate estimation of emergency response parameters during earthquakes is important in earthquake early warning (EEW) systems. Because earthquake rupture is not instantaneous, to accurately, safely, and reliably determine parameters and thresholds for emergency response, the cumulative absolute velocity (CAV) is used as the target parameter, and 7 P-wave characteristic parameters of strong ground motion records occurring 3 s after P-wave arrival at K-NET and KiK-net stations in Japan are used as inputs to construct a machine learning (ML) CAV prediction model based on the support vector machine (SVM) algorithm. The results show that compared with a single-parameter prediction algorithm, the proposed ML model can significantly reduce the error standard deviation and effectively address the phenomena of small value overestimation and large value underestimation. A confusion matrix analysis demonstrates that the 6-parameter model Pa&Pv&Pd&CAV&Ia&IV2 shows the best performance in improving the prediction accuracy and provides a threshold selection strategy for threshold-based EEW emergency response.
期刊介绍:
Journal of Seismology is an international journal specialising in all observational and theoretical aspects related to earthquake occurrence.
Research topics may cover: seismotectonics, seismicity, historical seismicity, seismic source physics, strong ground motion studies, seismic hazard or risk, engineering seismology, physics of fault systems, triggered and induced seismicity, mining seismology, volcano seismology, earthquake prediction, structural investigations ranging from local to regional and global studies with a particular focus on passive experiments.