Xin Yang, Thea M Mooij, Goska Leslie, Lorenzo Ficorella, Nadine Andrieu, Karin Kast, Christian F Singer, Anna Jakubowska, Carla H van Gils, Yen Y Tan, Christoph Engel, Muriel A Adank, Christi J van Asperen, Margreet G E M Ausems, Pascaline Berthet, Margriet J Collee, Jackie A Cook, Jacqueline Eason, Karin Y van Spaendonck-Zwarts, D Gareth Evans, Encarna B Gómez García, Helen Hanson, Louise Izatt, Zoe Kemp, Fiona Lalloo, Christine Lasset, Fabienne Lesueur, Hannah Musgrave, Sophie Nambot, Catherine Noguès, Jan C Oosterwijk, Dominique Stoppa-Lyonnet, Marc Tischkowitz, Vishakha Tripathi, Marijke R Wevers, Emily Zhao, Flora E van Leeuwen, Marjanka K Schmidt, Douglas F Easton, Matti A Rookus, Antonis C Antoniou
{"title":"在 BRCA1/2 致病变异携带者前瞻性队列中验证 BOADICEA 模型。","authors":"Xin Yang, Thea M Mooij, Goska Leslie, Lorenzo Ficorella, Nadine Andrieu, Karin Kast, Christian F Singer, Anna Jakubowska, Carla H van Gils, Yen Y Tan, Christoph Engel, Muriel A Adank, Christi J van Asperen, Margreet G E M Ausems, Pascaline Berthet, Margriet J Collee, Jackie A Cook, Jacqueline Eason, Karin Y van Spaendonck-Zwarts, D Gareth Evans, Encarna B Gómez García, Helen Hanson, Louise Izatt, Zoe Kemp, Fiona Lalloo, Christine Lasset, Fabienne Lesueur, Hannah Musgrave, Sophie Nambot, Catherine Noguès, Jan C Oosterwijk, Dominique Stoppa-Lyonnet, Marc Tischkowitz, Vishakha Tripathi, Marijke R Wevers, Emily Zhao, Flora E van Leeuwen, Marjanka K Schmidt, Douglas F Easton, Matti A Rookus, Antonis C Antoniou","doi":"10.1136/jmg-2024-109943","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>No validation has been conducted for the BOADICEA multifactorial breast cancer risk prediction model specifically in <i>BRCA1/2</i> pathogenic variant (PV) carriers to date. Here, we evaluated the performance of BOADICEA in predicting 5-year breast cancer risks in a prospective cohort of <i>BRCA1/2</i> PV carriers ascertained through clinical genetic centres.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>We evaluated the model calibration and discriminatory ability in the prospective TRANsIBCCS cohort study comprising 1614 <i>BRCA1</i> and 1365 <i>BRCA2</i> PV carriers (209 incident cases). Study participants had lifestyle, reproductive, hormonal, anthropometric risk factor information, a polygenic risk score based on 313 SNPs and family history information.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>The full multifactorial model considering family history together with all other risk factors was well calibrated overall (E/O=1.07, 95% CI: 0.92 to 1.24) and in quintiles of predicted risk. Discrimination was maximised when all risk factors were considered (Harrell's C-index=0.70, 95% CI: 0.67 to 0.74; area under the curve=0.79, 95% CI: 0.76 to 0.82). The model performance was similar when evaluated separately in <i>BRCA1</i> or <i>BRCA2</i> PV carriers. The full model identified 5.8%, 12.9% and 24.0% of <i>BRCA1/2</i> PV carriers with 5-year breast cancer risks of <1.65%, <3% and <5%, respectively, risk thresholds commonly used for different management and risk-reduction options.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>BOADICEA may be used to aid personalised cancer risk management and decision-making for <i>BRCA1</i> and <i>BRCA2</i> PV carriers. It is implemented in the free-access CanRisk tool (https://www.canrisk.org/).</p>","PeriodicalId":16237,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Medical Genetics","volume":" ","pages":"803-809"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5000,"publicationDate":"2024-07-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11287562/pdf/","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Validation of the BOADICEA model in a prospective cohort of <i>BRCA1/2</i> pathogenic variant carriers.\",\"authors\":\"Xin Yang, Thea M Mooij, Goska Leslie, Lorenzo Ficorella, Nadine Andrieu, Karin Kast, Christian F Singer, Anna Jakubowska, Carla H van Gils, Yen Y Tan, Christoph Engel, Muriel A Adank, Christi J van Asperen, Margreet G E M Ausems, Pascaline Berthet, Margriet J Collee, Jackie A Cook, Jacqueline Eason, Karin Y van Spaendonck-Zwarts, D Gareth Evans, Encarna B Gómez García, Helen Hanson, Louise Izatt, Zoe Kemp, Fiona Lalloo, Christine Lasset, Fabienne Lesueur, Hannah Musgrave, Sophie Nambot, Catherine Noguès, Jan C Oosterwijk, Dominique Stoppa-Lyonnet, Marc Tischkowitz, Vishakha Tripathi, Marijke R Wevers, Emily Zhao, Flora E van Leeuwen, Marjanka K Schmidt, Douglas F Easton, Matti A Rookus, Antonis C Antoniou\",\"doi\":\"10.1136/jmg-2024-109943\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p><strong>Background: </strong>No validation has been conducted for the BOADICEA multifactorial breast cancer risk prediction model specifically in <i>BRCA1/2</i> pathogenic variant (PV) carriers to date. Here, we evaluated the performance of BOADICEA in predicting 5-year breast cancer risks in a prospective cohort of <i>BRCA1/2</i> PV carriers ascertained through clinical genetic centres.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>We evaluated the model calibration and discriminatory ability in the prospective TRANsIBCCS cohort study comprising 1614 <i>BRCA1</i> and 1365 <i>BRCA2</i> PV carriers (209 incident cases). Study participants had lifestyle, reproductive, hormonal, anthropometric risk factor information, a polygenic risk score based on 313 SNPs and family history information.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>The full multifactorial model considering family history together with all other risk factors was well calibrated overall (E/O=1.07, 95% CI: 0.92 to 1.24) and in quintiles of predicted risk. Discrimination was maximised when all risk factors were considered (Harrell's C-index=0.70, 95% CI: 0.67 to 0.74; area under the curve=0.79, 95% CI: 0.76 to 0.82). The model performance was similar when evaluated separately in <i>BRCA1</i> or <i>BRCA2</i> PV carriers. The full model identified 5.8%, 12.9% and 24.0% of <i>BRCA1/2</i> PV carriers with 5-year breast cancer risks of <1.65%, <3% and <5%, respectively, risk thresholds commonly used for different management and risk-reduction options.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>BOADICEA may be used to aid personalised cancer risk management and decision-making for <i>BRCA1</i> and <i>BRCA2</i> PV carriers. It is implemented in the free-access CanRisk tool (https://www.canrisk.org/).</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":16237,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Journal of Medical Genetics\",\"volume\":\" \",\"pages\":\"803-809\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":3.5000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-07-19\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11287562/pdf/\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Journal of Medical Genetics\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"3\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1136/jmg-2024-109943\",\"RegionNum\":2,\"RegionCategory\":\"医学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"GENETICS & HEREDITY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Medical Genetics","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1136/jmg-2024-109943","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"GENETICS & HEREDITY","Score":null,"Total":0}
Validation of the BOADICEA model in a prospective cohort of BRCA1/2 pathogenic variant carriers.
Background: No validation has been conducted for the BOADICEA multifactorial breast cancer risk prediction model specifically in BRCA1/2 pathogenic variant (PV) carriers to date. Here, we evaluated the performance of BOADICEA in predicting 5-year breast cancer risks in a prospective cohort of BRCA1/2 PV carriers ascertained through clinical genetic centres.
Methods: We evaluated the model calibration and discriminatory ability in the prospective TRANsIBCCS cohort study comprising 1614 BRCA1 and 1365 BRCA2 PV carriers (209 incident cases). Study participants had lifestyle, reproductive, hormonal, anthropometric risk factor information, a polygenic risk score based on 313 SNPs and family history information.
Results: The full multifactorial model considering family history together with all other risk factors was well calibrated overall (E/O=1.07, 95% CI: 0.92 to 1.24) and in quintiles of predicted risk. Discrimination was maximised when all risk factors were considered (Harrell's C-index=0.70, 95% CI: 0.67 to 0.74; area under the curve=0.79, 95% CI: 0.76 to 0.82). The model performance was similar when evaluated separately in BRCA1 or BRCA2 PV carriers. The full model identified 5.8%, 12.9% and 24.0% of BRCA1/2 PV carriers with 5-year breast cancer risks of <1.65%, <3% and <5%, respectively, risk thresholds commonly used for different management and risk-reduction options.
Conclusion: BOADICEA may be used to aid personalised cancer risk management and decision-making for BRCA1 and BRCA2 PV carriers. It is implemented in the free-access CanRisk tool (https://www.canrisk.org/).
期刊介绍：
Journal of Medical Genetics is a leading international peer-reviewed journal covering original research in human genetics, including reviews of and opinion on the latest developments. Articles cover the molecular basis of human disease including germline cancer genetics, clinical manifestations of genetic disorders, applications of molecular genetics to medical practice and the systematic evaluation of such applications worldwide.
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