结合食物和环境污染对李斯特菌病传播动态进行流行病学建模的多人群方法

S.Y. Tchoumi , C.W. Chukwu , Windarto
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引用次数: 0

摘要

李斯特菌病是一种食源性疾病,主要影响孕妇和新生儿。我们提出并分析了李斯特菌病的确定性模型,考虑了三组个体:新生儿、孕妇和其他人。我们对模型进行了数学分析,并确定了平衡点。该模型有三个平衡点,即无疾病平衡点、无细菌平衡点和地方病平衡点。当基本繁殖数小于 1 时,我们利用卡斯蒂略-查韦斯定理确定了无病平衡的全局稳定性,并利用雅各布矩阵特征值的符号确定了无菌平衡和地方病平衡的局部渐近稳定性。我们使用非标准有限差分方案并进行了数值模拟,以证实理论结果。我们进一步展示了特定参数对感染个体动态的影响,并观察到需要通过降低接触率和垂直传播来对所有亚群进行干预,以尽量减少感染者的数量。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
A multi-population approach to epidemiological modeling of Listeriosis transmission dynamics incorporating food and environmental contamination

Listeriosis is a food-borne disease that mainly affects pregnant women and newborns. We propose and analyze a deterministic model of Listeriosis by considering three groups of individuals: newborns, pregnant women, and others. Mathematical analysis of the model is performed, and equilibrium points are determined. The model has three equilibria, namely, the disease-free equilibrium, the bacteria-free equilibrium, and the endemic equilibrium. We use Castillo-Chavez theorem to establish the global stability of the disease-free equilibrium when the basic reproduction number is less than 1. The local asymptotic stability of the bacteria-free, and endemic equilibria are also established using the sign of the eigenvalues of the Jacobian matrix. We use the non-standard finite difference scheme and carried numerical simulations to confirm the theoretical results. We further show the impact of specific parameters on the dynamics of infectious individuals and observe that intervention is required in all the sub-populations by reducing the contact rate and vertical transmission to mininmize the number of infectious.

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来源期刊
Healthcare analytics (New York, N.Y.)
Healthcare analytics (New York, N.Y.) Applied Mathematics, Modelling and Simulation, Nursing and Health Professions (General)
CiteScore
4.40
自引率
0.00%
发文量
0
审稿时长
79 days
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