{"title":"评估比特币、黄金和黄金支持的加密货币作为能源和农产品避风港的作用：从 COVID-19、俄乌冲突和 SVB 崩溃中得到的启示","authors":"Yasmine Snene Manzli, Ahmed Jeribi","doi":"10.1108/jfep-12-2023-0386","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<h3>Purpose</h3>\n<p>This paper aims to investigate the safe haven feature of Bitcoin, gold and two gold-backed cryptocurrencies (DGX and PAXG) against energy and agricultural commodities (crude oil, natural gas and wheat) during the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russia–Ukraine conflict and the Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) collapse.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->\n<h3>Design/methodology/approach</h3>\n<p>The authors use the threshold GARCH (T-GARCH)-asymmetric dynamic conditional correlation (ADCC) model to evaluate the asymmetric dynamic conditional correlation between the return series and compare the diversifying, hedging and safe-haven ability of Bitcoin, gold and the two gold-backed cryptocurrencies (DGX and PAXG) against financial swings in the commodity market during the COVID-19 outbreak, the Russian–Ukrainian military conflict and SVB collapse. The authors also calculate the hedging ratios (HR) and hedging effectiveness index (HE). The authors finally use the wavelet coherence (WC) approach to check our results’ robustness and further investigate the impact of the three crises on the relationship between Bitcoin, gold gold-backed cryptocurrencies and commodities.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->\n<h3>Findings</h3>\n<p>The results show that PAXG serves as a strong hedging instrument while gold, Bitcoin and DGX act as strong diversifiers during normal times. During crises, gold outperforms Bitcoin as a diversifier and a safe haven against commodities. Gold-backed cryptocurrencies also exhibit strong performance as diversifiers and safe havens. HR results indicate that Bitcoin and DGX are more cost-effective for commodities risk mitigation than gold and PAXG. In terms of hedging effectiveness, gold and PAXG emerge as the best hedging instruments for commodities, while DGX is considered the worst one. Bitcoin shows superior hedging against oil compared to wheat and gas risks. Moreover, the results of the WC approach confirm those of the T-GARCH-ADCC results in both the short and long run.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->\n<h3>Originality/value</h3>\n<p>This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the diversification ability of gold, Bitcoin and gold-backed cryptocurrencies during different crises (the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russia–Ukraine conflict and the SVB collapse). By taking into consideration gold-backed cryptocurrencies, the authors expand the understanding of safe havens beyond conventional assets.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->","PeriodicalId":45556,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Financial Economic Policy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.3000,"publicationDate":"2024-05-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Assessing Bitcoin, gold and gold-backed cryptocurrencies as safe havens for energy and agricultural commodities: insights from COVID-19, Russia–Ukraine conflict and SVB collapse\",\"authors\":\"Yasmine Snene Manzli, Ahmed Jeribi\",\"doi\":\"10.1108/jfep-12-2023-0386\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<h3>Purpose</h3>\\n<p>This paper aims to investigate the safe haven feature of Bitcoin, gold and two gold-backed cryptocurrencies (DGX and PAXG) against energy and agricultural commodities (crude oil, natural gas and wheat) during the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russia–Ukraine conflict and the Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) collapse.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->\\n<h3>Design/methodology/approach</h3>\\n<p>The authors use the threshold GARCH (T-GARCH)-asymmetric dynamic conditional correlation (ADCC) model to evaluate the asymmetric dynamic conditional correlation between the return series and compare the diversifying, hedging and safe-haven ability of Bitcoin, gold and the two gold-backed cryptocurrencies (DGX and PAXG) against financial swings in the commodity market during the COVID-19 outbreak, the Russian–Ukrainian military conflict and SVB collapse. The authors also calculate the hedging ratios (HR) and hedging effectiveness index (HE). The authors finally use the wavelet coherence (WC) approach to check our results’ robustness and further investigate the impact of the three crises on the relationship between Bitcoin, gold gold-backed cryptocurrencies and commodities.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->\\n<h3>Findings</h3>\\n<p>The results show that PAXG serves as a strong hedging instrument while gold, Bitcoin and DGX act as strong diversifiers during normal times. During crises, gold outperforms Bitcoin as a diversifier and a safe haven against commodities. Gold-backed cryptocurrencies also exhibit strong performance as diversifiers and safe havens. HR results indicate that Bitcoin and DGX are more cost-effective for commodities risk mitigation than gold and PAXG. In terms of hedging effectiveness, gold and PAXG emerge as the best hedging instruments for commodities, while DGX is considered the worst one. Bitcoin shows superior hedging against oil compared to wheat and gas risks. Moreover, the results of the WC approach confirm those of the T-GARCH-ADCC results in both the short and long run.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->\\n<h3>Originality/value</h3>\\n<p>This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the diversification ability of gold, Bitcoin and gold-backed cryptocurrencies during different crises (the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russia–Ukraine conflict and the SVB collapse). 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Assessing Bitcoin, gold and gold-backed cryptocurrencies as safe havens for energy and agricultural commodities: insights from COVID-19, Russia–Ukraine conflict and SVB collapse
Purpose
This paper aims to investigate the safe haven feature of Bitcoin, gold and two gold-backed cryptocurrencies (DGX and PAXG) against energy and agricultural commodities (crude oil, natural gas and wheat) during the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russia–Ukraine conflict and the Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) collapse.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors use the threshold GARCH (T-GARCH)-asymmetric dynamic conditional correlation (ADCC) model to evaluate the asymmetric dynamic conditional correlation between the return series and compare the diversifying, hedging and safe-haven ability of Bitcoin, gold and the two gold-backed cryptocurrencies (DGX and PAXG) against financial swings in the commodity market during the COVID-19 outbreak, the Russian–Ukrainian military conflict and SVB collapse. The authors also calculate the hedging ratios (HR) and hedging effectiveness index (HE). The authors finally use the wavelet coherence (WC) approach to check our results’ robustness and further investigate the impact of the three crises on the relationship between Bitcoin, gold gold-backed cryptocurrencies and commodities.
Findings
The results show that PAXG serves as a strong hedging instrument while gold, Bitcoin and DGX act as strong diversifiers during normal times. During crises, gold outperforms Bitcoin as a diversifier and a safe haven against commodities. Gold-backed cryptocurrencies also exhibit strong performance as diversifiers and safe havens. HR results indicate that Bitcoin and DGX are more cost-effective for commodities risk mitigation than gold and PAXG. In terms of hedging effectiveness, gold and PAXG emerge as the best hedging instruments for commodities, while DGX is considered the worst one. Bitcoin shows superior hedging against oil compared to wheat and gas risks. Moreover, the results of the WC approach confirm those of the T-GARCH-ADCC results in both the short and long run.
Originality/value
This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the diversification ability of gold, Bitcoin and gold-backed cryptocurrencies during different crises (the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russia–Ukraine conflict and the SVB collapse). By taking into consideration gold-backed cryptocurrencies, the authors expand the understanding of safe havens beyond conventional assets.
期刊介绍：
The Journal of Financial Economic Policy publishes high quality peer reviewed research on financial economic policy issues. The journal is devoted to the advancement of the understanding of the entire spectrum of financial policy and control issues and their interactions to economic phenomena. Economic and financial phenomena involve complex trade-offs and linkages between various types of risk factors and variables of interest to policy makers and market participants alike. Market participants such as economic policy makers, regulators, banking and competition supervisors, corporations and financial institutions, require timely and robust answers to the contemporary and emerging policy questions. In turn, such answers require thorough input by the academics, policy makers and practitioners alike. The Journal of Financial Economic Policy provides the forum to satisfy this need. The journal publishes and invites concise papers to enable a prompt response to current and emerging policy affairs.
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