Two perspectives on amplified warming over tropical land examined in CMIP6 models

Abstract Climate change projections show amplified warming associated with dry conditions over tropical land. We compare two perspectives explaining this amplified warming: one based on tropical atmospheric dynamics, and the other focusing on soil moisture and surface fluxes. We first compare the full spatiotemporal distribution of changes in key variables in the two perspectives under a quadrupling of CO2 using daily output from the CMIP6 simulations. Both perspectives center around the partitioning of the total energy/energy flux into the temperature and humidity components. We examine the contribution of this temperature/humidity partitioning in the base climate and its change under warming to rising temperatures by deriving a diagnostic linearized perturbation model that relates the magnitude of warming to (1) changes in the total energy/energy flux, (2) the base-climate temperature/humidity partitioning, and (3) changes in the partitioning under warming. We show that the spatiotemporal structure of warming in CMIP6 models is well predicted by the inverse of the base-climate partition factor, which we term the base-climate sensitivity: conditions that are drier in the base climate have a higher base-climate sensitivity and experience more warming. On top of this relationship, changes in the partition factor under intermediate (between wet and dry) surface conditions further enhance or dampen the warming. We discuss the mechanistic link between the two perspectives by illustrating the strong relationships between lower tropospheric temperature lapse rates, a key variable for the atmospheric perspective, and surfaces fluxes, a key component of the land surface perspective.