Qiao Liu, Min Du, Yaping Wang, Jie Deng, Wenxin Yan, Chenyuan Qin, Min Liu, Jue Liu
{"title":"1990-2022 年全球、地区和国家自然洪水的趋势和影响。","authors":"Qiao Liu, Min Du, Yaping Wang, Jie Deng, Wenxin Yan, Chenyuan Qin, Min Liu, Jue Liu","doi":"10.2471/BLT.23.290243","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Objective: </strong>To assess global, regional and national trends in the impact of floods from 1990 to 2022 and determine factors influencing flood-related deaths.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>We used data on flood disasters from the International Disaster Database for 1990-2022 from 168 countries. We calculated the annual percentage change to estimate trends in the rates of people affected and killed by floods by study period, World Health Organization (WHO) region, country income level and flood type. We used multivariable logistic regression analysis to assess the factors associated with death from floods.</p><p><strong>Findings: </strong>From 1990 to 2022, 4713 floods were recorded in 168 countries, which affected > 3.2 billion people, caused 218 353 deaths and were responsible for more than 1.3 trillion United States dollars of economic losses. The WHO Western Pacific Region had the most people affected by floods (> 2.0 billion), accounting for 63.19% (2 024 599 380/3 203 944 965) of all affected populations. The South-East Asia Region had the most deaths (71 713, 32.84%). The African and Eastern Mediterranean Regions had the highest number of people affected and killed by floods per 100 000 population in 2022. The odds of floods causing more than 50 deaths were significantly higher in low-income countries (adjusted odds ratio: 14.34; 95% confidence interval: 7.46 to 30.04) compared with high-income countries. Numbers of people affected and mortality due to floods declined over time.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>Despite the decreases in populations affected and deaths, floods still have a serious impact on people and economies globally, particularly in lower-income countries. Action is needed to improve disaster risk management and flood mitigation.</p>","PeriodicalId":9465,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of the World Health Organization","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.4000,"publicationDate":"2024-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11132161/pdf/","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Global, regional and national trends and impacts of natural floods, 1990-2022.\",\"authors\":\"Qiao Liu, Min Du, Yaping Wang, Jie Deng, Wenxin Yan, Chenyuan Qin, Min Liu, Jue Liu\",\"doi\":\"10.2471/BLT.23.290243\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p><strong>Objective: </strong>To assess global, regional and national trends in the impact of floods from 1990 to 2022 and determine factors influencing flood-related deaths.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>We used data on flood disasters from the International Disaster Database for 1990-2022 from 168 countries. We calculated the annual percentage change to estimate trends in the rates of people affected and killed by floods by study period, World Health Organization (WHO) region, country income level and flood type. We used multivariable logistic regression analysis to assess the factors associated with death from floods.</p><p><strong>Findings: </strong>From 1990 to 2022, 4713 floods were recorded in 168 countries, which affected > 3.2 billion people, caused 218 353 deaths and were responsible for more than 1.3 trillion United States dollars of economic losses. The WHO Western Pacific Region had the most people affected by floods (> 2.0 billion), accounting for 63.19% (2 024 599 380/3 203 944 965) of all affected populations. The South-East Asia Region had the most deaths (71 713, 32.84%). The African and Eastern Mediterranean Regions had the highest number of people affected and killed by floods per 100 000 population in 2022. The odds of floods causing more than 50 deaths were significantly higher in low-income countries (adjusted odds ratio: 14.34; 95% confidence interval: 7.46 to 30.04) compared with high-income countries. Numbers of people affected and mortality due to floods declined over time.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>Despite the decreases in populations affected and deaths, floods still have a serious impact on people and economies globally, particularly in lower-income countries. Action is needed to improve disaster risk management and flood mitigation.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":9465,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Bulletin of the World Health Organization\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":8.4000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-06-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11132161/pdf/\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Bulletin of the World Health Organization\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"3\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.2471/BLT.23.290243\",\"RegionNum\":2,\"RegionCategory\":\"医学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"2024/4/17 0:00:00\",\"PubModel\":\"Epub\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Bulletin of the World Health Organization","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.2471/BLT.23.290243","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"2024/4/17 0:00:00","PubModel":"Epub","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH","Score":null,"Total":0}
Global, regional and national trends and impacts of natural floods, 1990-2022.
Objective: To assess global, regional and national trends in the impact of floods from 1990 to 2022 and determine factors influencing flood-related deaths.
Methods: We used data on flood disasters from the International Disaster Database for 1990-2022 from 168 countries. We calculated the annual percentage change to estimate trends in the rates of people affected and killed by floods by study period, World Health Organization (WHO) region, country income level and flood type. We used multivariable logistic regression analysis to assess the factors associated with death from floods.
Findings: From 1990 to 2022, 4713 floods were recorded in 168 countries, which affected > 3.2 billion people, caused 218 353 deaths and were responsible for more than 1.3 trillion United States dollars of economic losses. The WHO Western Pacific Region had the most people affected by floods (> 2.0 billion), accounting for 63.19% (2 024 599 380/3 203 944 965) of all affected populations. The South-East Asia Region had the most deaths (71 713, 32.84%). The African and Eastern Mediterranean Regions had the highest number of people affected and killed by floods per 100 000 population in 2022. The odds of floods causing more than 50 deaths were significantly higher in low-income countries (adjusted odds ratio: 14.34; 95% confidence interval: 7.46 to 30.04) compared with high-income countries. Numbers of people affected and mortality due to floods declined over time.
Conclusion: Despite the decreases in populations affected and deaths, floods still have a serious impact on people and economies globally, particularly in lower-income countries. Action is needed to improve disaster risk management and flood mitigation.
期刊介绍:
The Bulletin of the World Health Organization
Journal Overview:
Leading public health journal
Peer-reviewed monthly journal
Special focus on developing countries
Global scope and authority
Top public and environmental health journal
Impact factor of 6.818 (2018), according to Web of Science ranking
Audience:
Essential reading for public health decision-makers and researchers
Provides blend of research, well-informed opinion, and news