1990-2022 年全球、地区和国家自然洪水的趋势和影响。

IF 8.4 2区 医学 Q1 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH
Bulletin of the World Health Organization Pub Date : 2024-06-01 Epub Date: 2024-04-17 DOI:10.2471/BLT.23.290243
Qiao Liu, Min Du, Yaping Wang, Jie Deng, Wenxin Yan, Chenyuan Qin, Min Liu, Jue Liu
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引用次数: 0

摘要

目标:评估 1990 年至 2022 年全球、地区和国家洪水影响的趋势,确定洪水导致死亡的影响因素:评估 1990 年至 2022 年全球、地区和国家洪水影响的趋势,并确定影响洪水相关死亡的因素:我们使用了国际灾害数据库中 168 个国家 1990-2022 年的洪水灾害数据。我们按研究期间、世界卫生组织(WHO)地区、国家收入水平和洪水类型计算了每年的百分比变化,以估计洪水受灾和死亡人数的趋势。我们使用多变量逻辑回归分析来评估与洪灾死亡相关的因素:从 1990 年到 2022 年,168 个国家发生了 4713 次洪灾,受灾人口超过 32 亿,造成 218 353 人死亡,经济损失超过 1.3 万亿美元。世卫组织西太平洋区域受洪灾影响的人口最多(超过 20 亿),占所有受灾人口的 63.19%(2 024 599 380/3 203 944 965)。东南亚地区死亡人数最多(71713 人,占 32.84%)。2022 年,非洲和地中海东部地区每 10 万人中受洪灾影响和死亡的人数最多。与高收入国家相比,低收入国家发生洪灾造成 50 人以上死亡的几率明显更高(调整后的几率比:14.34;95% 置信区间:7.46 至 30.04)。随着时间的推移,洪灾造成的受灾人数和死亡率有所下降:结论:尽管受灾人口和死亡人数有所下降,但洪灾仍对全球人民和经济造成严重影响,尤其是在低收入国家。需要采取行动,改善灾害风险管理和洪灾减灾工作。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Global, regional and national trends and impacts of natural floods, 1990-2022.

Objective: To assess global, regional and national trends in the impact of floods from 1990 to 2022 and determine factors influencing flood-related deaths.

Methods: We used data on flood disasters from the International Disaster Database for 1990-2022 from 168 countries. We calculated the annual percentage change to estimate trends in the rates of people affected and killed by floods by study period, World Health Organization (WHO) region, country income level and flood type. We used multivariable logistic regression analysis to assess the factors associated with death from floods.

Findings: From 1990 to 2022, 4713 floods were recorded in 168 countries, which affected > 3.2 billion people, caused 218 353 deaths and were responsible for more than 1.3 trillion United States dollars of economic losses. The WHO Western Pacific Region had the most people affected by floods (> 2.0 billion), accounting for 63.19% (2 024 599 380/3 203 944 965) of all affected populations. The South-East Asia Region had the most deaths (71 713, 32.84%). The African and Eastern Mediterranean Regions had the highest number of people affected and killed by floods per 100 000 population in 2022. The odds of floods causing more than 50 deaths were significantly higher in low-income countries (adjusted odds ratio: 14.34; 95% confidence interval: 7.46 to 30.04) compared with high-income countries. Numbers of people affected and mortality due to floods declined over time.

Conclusion: Despite the decreases in populations affected and deaths, floods still have a serious impact on people and economies globally, particularly in lower-income countries. Action is needed to improve disaster risk management and flood mitigation.

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来源期刊
Bulletin of the World Health Organization
Bulletin of the World Health Organization 医学-公共卫生、环境卫生与职业卫生
CiteScore
11.50
自引率
0.90%
发文量
317
审稿时长
3 months
期刊介绍: The Bulletin of the World Health Organization Journal Overview: Leading public health journal Peer-reviewed monthly journal Special focus on developing countries Global scope and authority Top public and environmental health journal Impact factor of 6.818 (2018), according to Web of Science ranking Audience: Essential reading for public health decision-makers and researchers Provides blend of research, well-informed opinion, and news
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