确定预测巴西国家足球协会和欧洲足联五大联赛胜负的指标

IF 1.5 4区 教育学 Q3 HOSPITALITY, LEISURE, SPORT & TOURISM
André Luiz Braga Jacinto, Gibson Moreira Praça, Guilherme de Sousa Pinheiro, Varley Teoldo da Costa
{"title":"确定预测巴西国家足球协会和欧洲足联五大联赛胜负的指标","authors":"André Luiz Braga Jacinto, Gibson Moreira Praça, Guilherme de Sousa Pinheiro, Varley Teoldo da Costa","doi":"10.1177/17479541241249475","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"This study identified which key performance indicators that predict the probability of winning are similar and specific for the top CONMEBOL and UEFA leagues. The analysis covered 12,289 games from the 2017/2018 to 2021/2022 seasons, excluding draws to focus on decisive results. Performance metrics were extracted using the InStat Scout® web platform, evaluating 55 offensive and defensive performance variables from the CONMEBOL and UEFA leagues. For data analysis, binary logistic regression was performed with the Forward Stepwise method. 14 similar predictive variables were identified between the CONMEBOL and UEFA leagues. We also identified 6 win-predictor variables specific to CONMEBOL, 2 win-predictor variables specific to UEFA, and 1 contextual variable that was predictive of victory for the CONMEBOL and UEFA leagues. The KPIs that are associated with an increased likelihood of winning games were identified. These include offensive actions, such as creating scoring chances, entering the final third of the opponent's field, shooting on goal, and being effective in counterattacks, converting penalties, and direct free kicks and making important passes and passes. For defensive actions, it was found that fouls, recoveries, possession interceptions, and low block defensive pressures are also associated with an increased likelihood of winning in the five main CONMEBOL and UEFA leagues. Particularly, for CONMEBOL leagues, counter-attacking actions, ball possession (%), free-kicks and efficiency for high pressing can also be associated with increased probability of winning. Specific to UEFA leagues, advancing actions down the left flanks and efficiency for team pressing are associated with increased probability of winning.","PeriodicalId":47767,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Sports Science & Coaching","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.5000,"publicationDate":"2024-05-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Identification of indicators that predict victory in the five main CONMEBOL and UEFA leagues\",\"authors\":\"André Luiz Braga Jacinto, Gibson Moreira Praça, Guilherme de Sousa Pinheiro, Varley Teoldo da Costa\",\"doi\":\"10.1177/17479541241249475\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"This study identified which key performance indicators that predict the probability of winning are similar and specific for the top CONMEBOL and UEFA leagues. The analysis covered 12,289 games from the 2017/2018 to 2021/2022 seasons, excluding draws to focus on decisive results. Performance metrics were extracted using the InStat Scout® web platform, evaluating 55 offensive and defensive performance variables from the CONMEBOL and UEFA leagues. For data analysis, binary logistic regression was performed with the Forward Stepwise method. 14 similar predictive variables were identified between the CONMEBOL and UEFA leagues. We also identified 6 win-predictor variables specific to CONMEBOL, 2 win-predictor variables specific to UEFA, and 1 contextual variable that was predictive of victory for the CONMEBOL and UEFA leagues. The KPIs that are associated with an increased likelihood of winning games were identified. These include offensive actions, such as creating scoring chances, entering the final third of the opponent's field, shooting on goal, and being effective in counterattacks, converting penalties, and direct free kicks and making important passes and passes. For defensive actions, it was found that fouls, recoveries, possession interceptions, and low block defensive pressures are also associated with an increased likelihood of winning in the five main CONMEBOL and UEFA leagues. Particularly, for CONMEBOL leagues, counter-attacking actions, ball possession (%), free-kicks and efficiency for high pressing can also be associated with increased probability of winning. Specific to UEFA leagues, advancing actions down the left flanks and efficiency for team pressing are associated with increased probability of winning.\",\"PeriodicalId\":47767,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"International Journal of Sports Science & Coaching\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":1.5000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-05-27\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"International Journal of Sports Science & Coaching\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"95\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1177/17479541241249475\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"教育学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q3\",\"JCRName\":\"HOSPITALITY, LEISURE, SPORT & TOURISM\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"International Journal of Sports Science & Coaching","FirstCategoryId":"95","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1177/17479541241249475","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"教育学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"HOSPITALITY, LEISURE, SPORT & TOURISM","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0

摘要

本研究确定了哪些预测获胜概率的关键性能指标与国家足球协会和欧洲足联的顶级联赛具有相似性和特殊性。分析涵盖 2017/2018 至 2021/2022 赛季的 12,289 场比赛,不包括平局,以关注决定性结果。使用 InStat Scout® 网络平台提取了性能指标,评估了来自巴西国家足球协会和欧洲足联联赛的 55 个进攻和防守性能变量。在数据分析中,采用前向逐步法进行了二元逻辑回归。结果发现,CONMEBOL 和 UEFA 联赛中有 14 个相似的预测变量。此外,我们还确定了 6 个预测 CONMEBOL 获胜的变量,2 个预测 UEFA 获胜的变量,以及 1 个预测 CONMEBOL 和 UEFA 联赛获胜的环境变量。确定了与增加获胜可能性相关的关键绩效指标。这些指标包括进攻行动,如创造得分机会、进入对方场地的最后三分之一、射门、有效反击、转换点球、直接任意球以及重要传球和传中。在防守动作方面,研究发现,犯规、回追、控球拦截和低阻挡防守压力也与 CONMEBOL 和 UEFA 五大联赛获胜可能性的增加有关。特别是在巴西国家杯联赛中,反击动作、控球率(%)、任意球和高位逼抢效率也与获胜概率的增加有关。具体到欧足联联赛,左翼推进动作和团队压迫效率与获胜概率增加有关。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Identification of indicators that predict victory in the five main CONMEBOL and UEFA leagues
This study identified which key performance indicators that predict the probability of winning are similar and specific for the top CONMEBOL and UEFA leagues. The analysis covered 12,289 games from the 2017/2018 to 2021/2022 seasons, excluding draws to focus on decisive results. Performance metrics were extracted using the InStat Scout® web platform, evaluating 55 offensive and defensive performance variables from the CONMEBOL and UEFA leagues. For data analysis, binary logistic regression was performed with the Forward Stepwise method. 14 similar predictive variables were identified between the CONMEBOL and UEFA leagues. We also identified 6 win-predictor variables specific to CONMEBOL, 2 win-predictor variables specific to UEFA, and 1 contextual variable that was predictive of victory for the CONMEBOL and UEFA leagues. The KPIs that are associated with an increased likelihood of winning games were identified. These include offensive actions, such as creating scoring chances, entering the final third of the opponent's field, shooting on goal, and being effective in counterattacks, converting penalties, and direct free kicks and making important passes and passes. For defensive actions, it was found that fouls, recoveries, possession interceptions, and low block defensive pressures are also associated with an increased likelihood of winning in the five main CONMEBOL and UEFA leagues. Particularly, for CONMEBOL leagues, counter-attacking actions, ball possession (%), free-kicks and efficiency for high pressing can also be associated with increased probability of winning. Specific to UEFA leagues, advancing actions down the left flanks and efficiency for team pressing are associated with increased probability of winning.
求助全文
通过发布文献求助,成功后即可免费获取论文全文。 去求助
来源期刊
CiteScore
3.50
自引率
15.80%
发文量
208
期刊介绍: The International Journal of Sports Science & Coaching is a peer-reviewed, international, academic/professional journal, which aims to bridge the gap between coaching and sports science. The journal will integrate theory and practice in sports science, promote critical reflection of coaching practice, and evaluate commonly accepted beliefs about coaching effectiveness and performance enhancement. Open learning systems will be promoted in which: (a) sports science is made accessible to coaches, translating knowledge into working practice; and (b) the challenges faced by coaches are communicated to sports scientists. The vision of the journal is to support the development of a community in which: (i) sports scientists and coaches respect and learn from each other as they assist athletes to acquire skills by training safely and effectively, thereby enhancing their performance, maximizing their enjoyment of the sporting experience and facilitating character development; and (ii) scientific research is embraced in the quest to uncover, understand and develop the processes involved in sports coaching and elite performance.
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
确定
请完成安全验证×
copy
已复制链接
快去分享给好友吧!
我知道了
右上角分享
点击右上角分享
0
联系我们:info@booksci.cn Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。 Copyright © 2023 布克学术 All rights reserved.
京ICP备2023020795号-1
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:481959085
Book学术官方微信