政治领袖与宏观经济预期：来自全球调查实验的证据

IF 4.8 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Public Economics Pub Date : 2024-05-28 DOI:10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105140

Dorine Boumans , Klaus Gründler , Niklas Potrafke , Fabian Ruthardt

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引用次数: 0

摘要

政治领导人能否在全球范围内影响宏观经济预期？我们在 100 多个国家有影响力的经济专家中设计了一个大规模调查实验，并将 2020 年美国总统大选作为一个准自然实验，以确定美国现任领导人的变化对全球宏观经济预期的影响。我们发现，美国领导人的更迭对国际专家的经济增长预期产生了巨大影响。这种效应通过经济（对贸易更积极的预期）和心理（不受欢迎但强大的领导人落选后的非理性繁荣）两个渠道产生。我们的研究结果表明，在宏观经济预期的形成过程中，政治溢出效应非常重要。

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Political leaders and macroeconomic expectations: Evidence from a global survey experiment

Can political leaders influence macroeconomic expectations on a global scale? We design a large-scale survey experiment among influential economic experts working in more than 100 countries and use the 2020 US presidential election as a quasi-natural experiment to identify the effect of the US incumbent change on global macroeconomic expectations. We find large effects of the change in US leadership on growth expectations of international experts. The effect works through both economic (more positive expectations about trade) and psychological (irrational exuberance at the defeat of an unpopular but powerful leader) channels. Our findings suggest important political spillover effects in the formation of macroeconomic expectations.

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来源期刊

Journal of Public Economics ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

14.10

自引率

2.00%

发文量

139

审稿时长

70 days

期刊介绍： The Journal of Public Economics aims to promote original scientific research in the field of public economics, focusing on the utilization of contemporary economic theory and quantitative analysis methodologies. It serves as a platform for the international scholarly community to engage in discussions on public policy matters.