明天赚得更多过度自信、收入预期和消费者负债

IF 1.2 3区 经济学 Q3 BUSINESS, FINANCE
ANTONIA GROHMANN, LUKAS MENKHOFF, CHRISTOPH MERKLE, RENKE SCHMACKER
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文探讨了过度自信造成的收入预期偏差是否会导致更高的举债水平。我们在一项具有代表性的德国家庭调查(德国社会经济小组-创新抽样调查 [GSOEP-IS])中显示了过度自信与借贷行为之间存在联系的提示性证据。这促使我们通过实验室实验来研究这些影响背后的因果关系。在两个实验中,参与者可以用未来收入借款购买商品。我们通过让收入取决于难易问答任务中的相对表现,外生地操纵了对收入预期的过度自信。在主要实验中,我们成功地产生了有偏差的收入预期,并表明收入预期较高的参与者最初借款较多。过度自信的参与者会在收入反馈后缩减消费。然而,在实验结束时,他们的债务仍然较高,这就造成了实际的财务后果。在稳健性实验中,我们排除了过度借贷是由低价商品驱动的可能性。尽管预期收入操纵在该实验中效果较差,但举债行为非常相似,并且与收入预期和过度自信相关。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Earn More Tomorrow: Overconfidence, Income Expectations, and Consumer Indebtedness
This paper examines whether biased income expectations due to overconfidence lead to higher levels of debt taking. We show suggestive evidence for a link between overconfidence and borrowing behavior in a representative survey of German households (German Socio‐Economic Panel–Innovation Sample [GSOEP‐IS]). This motivates a laboratory experiment to study causality behind these effects. In two experiments, participants can purchase goods by borrowing against their future income. We exogenously manipulate overconfidence about income expectations by letting income depend on relative performance in hard and easy quiz tasks. In the main experiment, we successfully generate biased income expectations and show that participants with higher income expectations initially borrow more. Overconfident participants scale back their consumption after income feedback. However, they remain in higher debt at the end of the experiment, which has real financial consequences. In a robustness experiment, we rule out that overborrowing is driven by low prices of goods. Even though the expected income manipulation works less well in this experiment, debt‐taking behavior is very similar and correlates with income expectations and overconfidence.
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来源期刊
CiteScore
2.90
自引率
6.70%
发文量
98
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