Michiya Hayashi, Hideo Shiogama, Noriko N. Ishizaki, Yasutaka Wakazuki
{"title":"CMIP6 中日本各地未来降水变化的情景依赖性","authors":"Michiya Hayashi, Hideo Shiogama, Noriko N. Ishizaki, Yasutaka Wakazuki","doi":"10.2151/sola.2024-028","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"</p><p>A bias-corrected downscaled 1-km mesh future climate dataset across Japan called NIES2020, based on five global climate models (GCMs) selected from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), has been used for regional impact assessments and adaptation studies under various emission scenarios. However, it is not yet revealed what determines the scenario dependence of the Japanese precipitation changes unscaled with global mean temperature changes. Here, we disentangled the inter-scenario differences in precipitation changes averaged across Japan. In the CMIP6 GCMs, the ensemble mean precipitation increases more in the mid-21<sup>st</sup> century under low-emission scenarios than higher-emission scenarios, consistent with NIES2020. In the low-emission scenarios, rapid reductions of anthropogenic aerosol emissions from East Asia enhance the surface downward shortwave radiation around Japan, promoting evaporation and precipitation. Such high precipitation sensitivity per degree of global warming is confirmed regardless of the season. In contrast, the precipitation increase is most suppressed under a high-emission scenario with weak air pollutant mitigation. Therefore, future precipitation changes across Japan are more constrained by aerosol emission changes than global warming levels, especially in the mid-21<sup>st</sup> century. This suggests climate response to air pollutant mitigations needs to be considered for implementing impact assessments and adaptation strategies in Japan.</p>\n<p></p>","PeriodicalId":1,"journal":{"name":"Accounts of Chemical Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":16.4000,"publicationDate":"2024-05-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Scenario Dependence of Future Precipitation Changes across Japan in CMIP6\",\"authors\":\"Michiya Hayashi, Hideo Shiogama, Noriko N. Ishizaki, Yasutaka Wakazuki\",\"doi\":\"10.2151/sola.2024-028\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"</p><p>A bias-corrected downscaled 1-km mesh future climate dataset across Japan called NIES2020, based on five global climate models (GCMs) selected from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), has been used for regional impact assessments and adaptation studies under various emission scenarios. However, it is not yet revealed what determines the scenario dependence of the Japanese precipitation changes unscaled with global mean temperature changes. Here, we disentangled the inter-scenario differences in precipitation changes averaged across Japan. In the CMIP6 GCMs, the ensemble mean precipitation increases more in the mid-21<sup>st</sup> century under low-emission scenarios than higher-emission scenarios, consistent with NIES2020. In the low-emission scenarios, rapid reductions of anthropogenic aerosol emissions from East Asia enhance the surface downward shortwave radiation around Japan, promoting evaporation and precipitation. Such high precipitation sensitivity per degree of global warming is confirmed regardless of the season. In contrast, the precipitation increase is most suppressed under a high-emission scenario with weak air pollutant mitigation. Therefore, future precipitation changes across Japan are more constrained by aerosol emission changes than global warming levels, especially in the mid-21<sup>st</sup> century. This suggests climate response to air pollutant mitigations needs to be considered for implementing impact assessments and adaptation strategies in Japan.</p>\\n<p></p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":1,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Accounts of Chemical Research\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":16.4000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-05-22\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Accounts of Chemical Research\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"89\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.2151/sola.2024-028\",\"RegionNum\":1,\"RegionCategory\":\"化学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"CHEMISTRY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Accounts of Chemical Research","FirstCategoryId":"89","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.2151/sola.2024-028","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"化学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"CHEMISTRY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY","Score":null,"Total":0}
Scenario Dependence of Future Precipitation Changes across Japan in CMIP6
A bias-corrected downscaled 1-km mesh future climate dataset across Japan called NIES2020, based on five global climate models (GCMs) selected from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), has been used for regional impact assessments and adaptation studies under various emission scenarios. However, it is not yet revealed what determines the scenario dependence of the Japanese precipitation changes unscaled with global mean temperature changes. Here, we disentangled the inter-scenario differences in precipitation changes averaged across Japan. In the CMIP6 GCMs, the ensemble mean precipitation increases more in the mid-21st century under low-emission scenarios than higher-emission scenarios, consistent with NIES2020. In the low-emission scenarios, rapid reductions of anthropogenic aerosol emissions from East Asia enhance the surface downward shortwave radiation around Japan, promoting evaporation and precipitation. Such high precipitation sensitivity per degree of global warming is confirmed regardless of the season. In contrast, the precipitation increase is most suppressed under a high-emission scenario with weak air pollutant mitigation. Therefore, future precipitation changes across Japan are more constrained by aerosol emission changes than global warming levels, especially in the mid-21st century. This suggests climate response to air pollutant mitigations needs to be considered for implementing impact assessments and adaptation strategies in Japan.
期刊介绍:
Accounts of Chemical Research presents short, concise and critical articles offering easy-to-read overviews of basic research and applications in all areas of chemistry and biochemistry. These short reviews focus on research from the author’s own laboratory and are designed to teach the reader about a research project. In addition, Accounts of Chemical Research publishes commentaries that give an informed opinion on a current research problem. Special Issues online are devoted to a single topic of unusual activity and significance.
Accounts of Chemical Research replaces the traditional article abstract with an article "Conspectus." These entries synopsize the research affording the reader a closer look at the content and significance of an article. Through this provision of a more detailed description of the article contents, the Conspectus enhances the article's discoverability by search engines and the exposure for the research.