宏观审慎政策对工业增长的影响

IF 2.8 2区经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of International Money and Finance Pub Date : 2024-05-24 DOI:10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103106

Carlos Madeira

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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文利用 1990 年至 2021 年期间 89 个国家的行业层面数据，分析了宏观审慎政策对经济增长的因果影响。较小的行业规模产生了外生识别，避免了反向因果关系。我发现宏观审慎紧缩措施会对制造业增长产生负面影响，但只针对对外部金融依赖度高的行业。这种影响在银行业危机、高增长时期和发达经济体中更为强烈。在私人信贷高增长时期，这种影响较弱。大流行病发生前实施的审慎政策缓解了增长的下降。对外部依赖型产业的增长效应在经济上是可观的，并可持续三年以上。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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The impact of macroprudential policies on industrial growth

This paper analyzes the causal impact of macroprudential policies on growth, using industry-level data for 89 countries for the period 1990 to 2021. The small industry size creates exogenous identification, avoiding reverse-causality. I find macroprudential tightening measures impact manufacturing growth negatively, but only for industries with high external finance dependence. This effect is stronger during banking crises, higher growth periods and for advanced economies. The effect is weaker during periods of high private credit growth. Prudential policies implemented before the pandemic mitigated the fall in growth. Growth effects on externally dependent industries are economically sizeable and can persist over three years.

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来源期刊

Journal of International Money and Finance BUSINESS, FINANCE-

CiteScore

4.20

自引率

4.00%

发文量

141

期刊介绍： Since its launch in 1982, Journal of International Money and Finance has built up a solid reputation as a high quality scholarly journal devoted to theoretical and empirical research in the fields of international monetary economics, international finance, and the rapidly developing overlap area between the two. Researchers in these areas, and financial market professionals too, pay attention to the articles that the journal publishes. Authors published in the journal are in the forefront of scholarly research on exchange rate behaviour, foreign exchange options, international capital markets, international monetary and fiscal policy, international transmission and related questions.