Effect of wind variability on the recruitment of anchovy Engraulis ringens in the southern Humboldt upwelling ecosystem

Recruitment is a critical process in the dynamics of fish populations since it represents the abundance of new fish that enter a population each year. In Ekman-type upwelling ecosystems, wind is a critical factor for small pelagic fish recruitment, as it controls food availability and physical constraints such as turbulence and offshore advection. In this study, we evaluate the effect of wind, chlorophyll-a, and spawning biomass as independent variables on anchovy recruitment. Using generalized additive models (GAMs), we tested (i) the significance of each factor, (ii) the shape of the relationship between recruitment and predictors variables, (iii) recruitment regimes in the series, and (iv) whether extended windy events are associated with low recruitment levels potentially related to offshore transport of early life stages. The study period spanned from 1990 to 2021, focusing on the austral spring in south-central Chile (35–40°S) when both upwelling and anchovy spawning are maximized. GAMs revealed a parabolic relationship between the velocity of upwelling-favorable winds and anchovy recruitment. Maximized recruitment occurred at wind speeds around 6 m s⁻¹ but decreased with winds above 7 m s⁻¹ and below 5 m s⁻¹, and during periods of extended windy events (i.e., those lasting more than 15 days). Chlorophyll-a showed no significance on anchovy recruitment, suggesting that phytoplankton were not a limiting factor for anchovy early survival. We also found that anchovy recruitment regimes were associated with specific wind intensities. We discussed the pertinence of incorporating a recruitment index based on wind in the fishery management of the anchovy in south-central Chile.