Ameha Tadesse Aytenfisu, D. Tolossa, S. T. Feleke, D. Ayal
{"title":"埃塞俄比亚中阿瓦士阿法尔地区的时空气候多变性和极端气候:对牧民和农牧民粮食安全的影响","authors":"Ameha Tadesse Aytenfisu, D. Tolossa, S. T. Feleke, D. Ayal","doi":"10.1108/ijccsm-11-2023-0140","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Purpose\nThis study aims to examine the phenomenon of climate variability and its implications for pastoralists and agro-pastoralists food security in Amibara and Awash Fentale districts of the Afar region, Ethiopia.\n\nDesign/methodology/approach\nThe study relied on meteorological records of temperature and rainfall in the study area between 1988 and 2018. Besides, literature on the topic was reviewed to make caveats on the literal picture that comes from quantitative data, and that is the contribution of this study to the existing debate on climate change and variability. The spatiotemporal trend was determined using the Mann–Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator, while variability was analyzed using the coefficient of variation and standardized anomaly index, and standardized precipitation index/standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index were applied to determine the drought frequency and severity.\n\nFindings\nThe result reveals that the mean seasonal rainfall varies from 111.34 mm to 518.74 mm. Although the maximum and minimum rainfall occurred in the summer and winter seasons, respectively, there has been a decrease in seasonal and annual at the rate of 2.51 mm per season and 4.12 mm per year, respectively. The study sites have been experiencing highly seasonal rainfall variability. The drought analysis result confirms that a total of nine agricultural droughts ranging from moderate to extreme years were observed. Overall, the seasonal and annual rainfall of the Amibara and Awash Fentale districts showed a decreasing trend with highly temporal variations of rainfall and ever-rising temperatures, and frequent drought events means the climate situation of the area could adversely affect pastoral and agro-pastoral households’ food security. However, analysis of data from secondary sources reveals that analyzing precipitation just based on the meteorological records of the study area would be misleading. That explains why flooding, rather than drought, is becoming the main source of catastrophe to pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihoods.\n\nPractical implications\nThe analysis of temperature and rainfall dynamics in the Afar region, hence the inception of all development interventions, must take the hydrological impact of the neighboring regions which appears to be useful direction to future researchers.\n\nOriginality/value\nThe research is originally conducted using meteorological and existing literature, and hence, it is original. In this research, we utilized a standardized and appropriate methodology, resulting in insights that augment the existing body of knowledge within the field. These insights serve to advance scholarly discourse on the subject matter.\n","PeriodicalId":46689,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.5000,"publicationDate":"2024-05-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Spatiotemporal climate variability and extremes in Middle Awash Afar region Ethiopia: implications to pastoralists and agro-pastoralists food security\",\"authors\":\"Ameha Tadesse Aytenfisu, D. Tolossa, S. T. Feleke, D. Ayal\",\"doi\":\"10.1108/ijccsm-11-2023-0140\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"Purpose\\nThis study aims to examine the phenomenon of climate variability and its implications for pastoralists and agro-pastoralists food security in Amibara and Awash Fentale districts of the Afar region, Ethiopia.\\n\\nDesign/methodology/approach\\nThe study relied on meteorological records of temperature and rainfall in the study area between 1988 and 2018. Besides, literature on the topic was reviewed to make caveats on the literal picture that comes from quantitative data, and that is the contribution of this study to the existing debate on climate change and variability. The spatiotemporal trend was determined using the Mann–Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator, while variability was analyzed using the coefficient of variation and standardized anomaly index, and standardized precipitation index/standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index were applied to determine the drought frequency and severity.\\n\\nFindings\\nThe result reveals that the mean seasonal rainfall varies from 111.34 mm to 518.74 mm. Although the maximum and minimum rainfall occurred in the summer and winter seasons, respectively, there has been a decrease in seasonal and annual at the rate of 2.51 mm per season and 4.12 mm per year, respectively. The study sites have been experiencing highly seasonal rainfall variability. The drought analysis result confirms that a total of nine agricultural droughts ranging from moderate to extreme years were observed. Overall, the seasonal and annual rainfall of the Amibara and Awash Fentale districts showed a decreasing trend with highly temporal variations of rainfall and ever-rising temperatures, and frequent drought events means the climate situation of the area could adversely affect pastoral and agro-pastoral households’ food security. However, analysis of data from secondary sources reveals that analyzing precipitation just based on the meteorological records of the study area would be misleading. That explains why flooding, rather than drought, is becoming the main source of catastrophe to pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihoods.\\n\\nPractical implications\\nThe analysis of temperature and rainfall dynamics in the Afar region, hence the inception of all development interventions, must take the hydrological impact of the neighboring regions which appears to be useful direction to future researchers.\\n\\nOriginality/value\\nThe research is originally conducted using meteorological and existing literature, and hence, it is original. In this research, we utilized a standardized and appropriate methodology, resulting in insights that augment the existing body of knowledge within the field. 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Spatiotemporal climate variability and extremes in Middle Awash Afar region Ethiopia: implications to pastoralists and agro-pastoralists food security
Purpose
This study aims to examine the phenomenon of climate variability and its implications for pastoralists and agro-pastoralists food security in Amibara and Awash Fentale districts of the Afar region, Ethiopia.
Design/methodology/approach
The study relied on meteorological records of temperature and rainfall in the study area between 1988 and 2018. Besides, literature on the topic was reviewed to make caveats on the literal picture that comes from quantitative data, and that is the contribution of this study to the existing debate on climate change and variability. The spatiotemporal trend was determined using the Mann–Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator, while variability was analyzed using the coefficient of variation and standardized anomaly index, and standardized precipitation index/standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index were applied to determine the drought frequency and severity.
Findings
The result reveals that the mean seasonal rainfall varies from 111.34 mm to 518.74 mm. Although the maximum and minimum rainfall occurred in the summer and winter seasons, respectively, there has been a decrease in seasonal and annual at the rate of 2.51 mm per season and 4.12 mm per year, respectively. The study sites have been experiencing highly seasonal rainfall variability. The drought analysis result confirms that a total of nine agricultural droughts ranging from moderate to extreme years were observed. Overall, the seasonal and annual rainfall of the Amibara and Awash Fentale districts showed a decreasing trend with highly temporal variations of rainfall and ever-rising temperatures, and frequent drought events means the climate situation of the area could adversely affect pastoral and agro-pastoral households’ food security. However, analysis of data from secondary sources reveals that analyzing precipitation just based on the meteorological records of the study area would be misleading. That explains why flooding, rather than drought, is becoming the main source of catastrophe to pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihoods.
Practical implications
The analysis of temperature and rainfall dynamics in the Afar region, hence the inception of all development interventions, must take the hydrological impact of the neighboring regions which appears to be useful direction to future researchers.
Originality/value
The research is originally conducted using meteorological and existing literature, and hence, it is original. In this research, we utilized a standardized and appropriate methodology, resulting in insights that augment the existing body of knowledge within the field. These insights serve to advance scholarly discourse on the subject matter.
期刊介绍:
Effective from volume 10 (2018), International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management is an open access journal. In the history of science there have been only a few issues which have mobilized the attention of scientists and policy-makers alike as the issue of climate change currently does. International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management is an international forum that addresses the need for disseminating scholarly research, projects and other initiatives aimed to facilitate a better understanding of the subject matter of climate change. The journal publishes papers dealing with policy-making on climate change, and methodological approaches to cope with the problems deriving from climate change. It disseminates experiences from projects and case studies where due consideration to environmental, economic, social and political aspects is given and especially the links and leverages that can be attained by this holistic approach. It regards climate change under the perspective of its wider implications: for economic growth, water and food security, and for people''s survival – especially those living in the poorest communities in developing countries.