The role of identification, intergroup contact, and group discrimination in shaping return and circular migration intentions: Recent Turkish immigrants in Germany and the Netherlands

This article investigates return and circular migration intentions among recent Turkish immigrants in Germany and the Netherlands using the “Socio-cultural Integration Processes among New Immigrants in Europe” (SCIP) study ( N = 1,816). Analyses using multinomial logistic regression indicate that future settlement intentions vary with the interplay of identification with home and host countries, intergroup contact with natives, co-ethnics, and other groups, and group discrimination. Findings reveal that home country identification, intersecting with group discrimination, is associated with a higher likelihood of preferring circular migration, amplified by contact with other groups. Conversely, host country identification, when combined with group discrimination, is linked to a higher likelihood of intending to return and a decreased likelihood of considering circular migration—a trend that strengthens with contact with co-ethnics. Notably, the association between contact with natives and future settlement intentions is not contingent on identification or discrimination, and each has distinct effects.