Structural adjustment, economic performance, and electoral volatility in presidential elections in Latin America

Drawing upon the Latin American Presidential and Legislative Elections database and our own original data set, we assess the effects of structural adjustment and other economic factors on presidential electoral volatility in 24 Latin American countries in 1982–2016. The results of our study indicate that both structural adjustment and inflation have a positive association with Type B presidential electoral volatility (the volatility generated from changes in the vote shares of established parties). Economic growth appears to have only a weak negative association with overall presidential electoral volatility. Type A presidential electoral volatility (the volatility associated with the rise of new parties) is mostly determined by demographic factors and the electoral system for the presidency. As with legislative volatility in Latin America, Africa, and postcommunist Europe, explaining stable party presidential volatility appears more challenging than explaining party replacement presidential volatility. Overall, several of the findings about legislative volatility are echoed in this study, but presidential electoral volatility is notably higher than legislative volatility in Latin America.