Numerical simulation of fault activity in the Qilian tectonic belt and dynamic background of Menyuan earthquake series

Some faults in the Qilian tectonic belt are seismogenic areas for strong earthquakes, including the western section of the Lenglongling fault, which frequently occures moderate-strong Menyuan earthquakes. In this study, using GPS velocity data of 1991–2015 as the boundary constraints, a three-dimensional viscoelastic finite element dynamic model is constructed by comprehensively considering the regional dynamic environment, crust-mantle transverse-longitudinal inhomogeneity, and spatial spreading of a complex fault system. The objective is to investigate the long-period characteristics of fault movement and stress change in the Qilian tectonic belt caused by tectonic loading, and to discuss the seismogenic conditions of the Menyuan earthquakes. The results show that the annual change of long-period movement and stress of the major faults in the Qilian Mountain tectonic zone are characterized by significant segmentation. Due to its unique geometric bend morphology, the western section of Lenglongling fault has a low movement rate, significant slip deficit and high shear stress accumulation, which are conducive to the gestation and occurrence of earthquakes. Furthermore, the seismogenic area of the Menyuan earthquake series is jointly subjected to NE-SW compressive and NW-SE tensile stress fields, and the maximum shear stress and elastic strain energy accumulate faster than in the surrounding areas. Overall, the western section of the Lenglongling fault has a strong dynamic background and favorable conditions for the frequent occurrence of the Menyuan earthquake series.