大雪造成的社会疏离对日本局部地区季节性流感疫情的影响

IF 2.9 4区 医学 Q3 IMMUNOLOGY
Pediatric Infectious Disease Journal Pub Date : 2024-10-01 Epub Date: 2024-05-20 DOI:10.1097/INF.0000000000004402
Kenta Yamada, Tomohiro Shinozaki, Yusei Ohshima
{"title":"大雪造成的社会疏离对日本局部地区季节性流感疫情的影响","authors":"Kenta Yamada, Tomohiro Shinozaki, Yusei Ohshima","doi":"10.1097/INF.0000000000004402","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>The effectiveness of social distancing in controlling influenza epidemics is debatable. We analyzed the local impact of large-scale social distancing caused by heavy snowfall on influenza epidemic.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>Surveillance data from the National Institute of Infectious Diseases on influenza diagnosed at registered Fukui Prefecture institutions were plotted in epidemic curves. We also compared the number of elementary and junior high school students suspended attendance due to influenza during the 2017/2018 season between the northern and southern Fukui Prefecture territories. Weekly incidence influenza rates and average rates before, during and after school closure caused by heavy snowfall in the northern territory were compared with those of the southern territory using Poisson generalized estimating equations to account for school variability.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>The northern territory epidemic curve, like the nationwide trend, rapidly declined during the heavy snowfall and formed a second peak 4 weeks later. The southern territory's curve was like the nationwide trend throughout. Weekly incidence rate ratios in schools for the northern versus southern territories varied from 0.23 during heavy snowfall to 2.32, 4 weeks after the snowfall. Cumulative incidence ratio (95% confidence interval) of the northern-to-southern territories was 0.92 (0.74-1.13; P = 0.42). School closure significantly reduced the incidence rate to 0.41 (95% confidence interval, 0.19-0.89; P = 0.02).</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>Although relatively large-scale, simultaneous school closures and social distancing could temporarily suppress seasonal influenza epidemic, they could not impede the cumulative incidence. Large-scale social distancing may contribute to slowing infection spread during seasonal influenza epidemics.</p>","PeriodicalId":19858,"journal":{"name":"Pediatric Infectious Disease Journal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.9000,"publicationDate":"2024-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Effect of Social Distancing Caused by Heavy Snowfall on Seasonal Influenza Epidemic in a Local Region in Japan.\",\"authors\":\"Kenta Yamada, Tomohiro Shinozaki, Yusei Ohshima\",\"doi\":\"10.1097/INF.0000000000004402\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p><strong>Background: </strong>The effectiveness of social distancing in controlling influenza epidemics is debatable. We analyzed the local impact of large-scale social distancing caused by heavy snowfall on influenza epidemic.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>Surveillance data from the National Institute of Infectious Diseases on influenza diagnosed at registered Fukui Prefecture institutions were plotted in epidemic curves. We also compared the number of elementary and junior high school students suspended attendance due to influenza during the 2017/2018 season between the northern and southern Fukui Prefecture territories. Weekly incidence influenza rates and average rates before, during and after school closure caused by heavy snowfall in the northern territory were compared with those of the southern territory using Poisson generalized estimating equations to account for school variability.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>The northern territory epidemic curve, like the nationwide trend, rapidly declined during the heavy snowfall and formed a second peak 4 weeks later. The southern territory's curve was like the nationwide trend throughout. Weekly incidence rate ratios in schools for the northern versus southern territories varied from 0.23 during heavy snowfall to 2.32, 4 weeks after the snowfall. Cumulative incidence ratio (95% confidence interval) of the northern-to-southern territories was 0.92 (0.74-1.13; P = 0.42). School closure significantly reduced the incidence rate to 0.41 (95% confidence interval, 0.19-0.89; P = 0.02).</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>Although relatively large-scale, simultaneous school closures and social distancing could temporarily suppress seasonal influenza epidemic, they could not impede the cumulative incidence. Large-scale social distancing may contribute to slowing infection spread during seasonal influenza epidemics.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":19858,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Pediatric Infectious Disease Journal\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":2.9000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-10-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Pediatric Infectious Disease Journal\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"3\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1097/INF.0000000000004402\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"医学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"2024/5/20 0:00:00\",\"PubModel\":\"Epub\",\"JCR\":\"Q3\",\"JCRName\":\"IMMUNOLOGY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Pediatric Infectious Disease Journal","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1097/INF.0000000000004402","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"2024/5/20 0:00:00","PubModel":"Epub","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"IMMUNOLOGY","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0

摘要

背景:社会隔离在控制流感流行方面的有效性尚存争议。我们分析了大雪造成的大规模社会隔离对当地流感疫情的影响:方法:国立传染病研究所提供的在福井县注册机构确诊的流感监测数据被绘制成流行曲线。我们还比较了福井县北部和南部地区在2017/2018年度因流感而停课的小学生和初中生人数。使用泊松广义估计方程对北部地区与南部地区因大雪造成学校停课前、停课期间和停课后的每周流感发病率和平均发病率进行了比较,以考虑学校的差异性:北部地区的疫情曲线与全国趋势一样,在大雪期间迅速下降,并在 4 周后形成第二个高峰。南部地区的疫情曲线则与全国趋势一致。北部地区与南部地区的学校每周发病率比率从大雪期间的 0.23 到大雪后 4 周的 2.32 不等。北部地区与南部地区的累积发病率比(95% 置信区间)为 0.92 (0.74-1.13; P = 0.42)。学校关闭后,发病率明显降低至 0.41(95% 置信区间,0.19-0.89;P = 0.02):结论:虽然相对大规模、同时关闭学校和拉开社会距离可以暂时抑制季节性流感的流行,但并不能阻止发病率的累积。在季节性流感流行期间,大规模的社会隔离可能有助于减缓感染传播。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Effect of Social Distancing Caused by Heavy Snowfall on Seasonal Influenza Epidemic in a Local Region in Japan.

Background: The effectiveness of social distancing in controlling influenza epidemics is debatable. We analyzed the local impact of large-scale social distancing caused by heavy snowfall on influenza epidemic.

Methods: Surveillance data from the National Institute of Infectious Diseases on influenza diagnosed at registered Fukui Prefecture institutions were plotted in epidemic curves. We also compared the number of elementary and junior high school students suspended attendance due to influenza during the 2017/2018 season between the northern and southern Fukui Prefecture territories. Weekly incidence influenza rates and average rates before, during and after school closure caused by heavy snowfall in the northern territory were compared with those of the southern territory using Poisson generalized estimating equations to account for school variability.

Results: The northern territory epidemic curve, like the nationwide trend, rapidly declined during the heavy snowfall and formed a second peak 4 weeks later. The southern territory's curve was like the nationwide trend throughout. Weekly incidence rate ratios in schools for the northern versus southern territories varied from 0.23 during heavy snowfall to 2.32, 4 weeks after the snowfall. Cumulative incidence ratio (95% confidence interval) of the northern-to-southern territories was 0.92 (0.74-1.13; P = 0.42). School closure significantly reduced the incidence rate to 0.41 (95% confidence interval, 0.19-0.89; P = 0.02).

Conclusions: Although relatively large-scale, simultaneous school closures and social distancing could temporarily suppress seasonal influenza epidemic, they could not impede the cumulative incidence. Large-scale social distancing may contribute to slowing infection spread during seasonal influenza epidemics.

求助全文
通过发布文献求助,成功后即可免费获取论文全文。 去求助
来源期刊
CiteScore
6.30
自引率
2.80%
发文量
566
审稿时长
2-4 weeks
期刊介绍: ​​The Pediatric Infectious Disease Journal® (PIDJ) is a complete, up-to-the-minute resource on infectious diseases in children. Through a mix of original studies, informative review articles, and unique case reports, PIDJ delivers the latest insights on combating disease in children — from state-of-the-art diagnostic techniques to the most effective drug therapies and other treatment protocols. It is a resource that can improve patient care and stimulate your personal research.
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
确定
请完成安全验证×
copy
已复制链接
快去分享给好友吧!
我知道了
右上角分享
点击右上角分享
0
联系我们:info@booksci.cn Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。 Copyright © 2023 布克学术 All rights reserved.
京ICP备2023020795号-1
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:481959085
Book学术官方微信