在国家尺度研究中克服生态位截断的空间嵌套分级物种分布模型

IF 5.4 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION
Ecography Pub Date : 2024-05-21 DOI:10.1111/ecog.07328
Teresa Goicolea, Antoine Adde, Olivier Broennimann, Juan Ignacio García‐Viñas, Aitor Gastón, María José Aroca‐Fernández, Antoine Guisan, Rubén G. Mateo
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引用次数: 0

摘要

物种分布模型(SDM)中的空间截断可能会导致生态位截断和模型可移植性问题,特别是在将模型外推到非模拟环境条件时。虽然宽泛的校准范围可以减少截断问题,但它们通常会忽略在更精细分辨率下驱动物种分布的局部生态因素。空间嵌套分层 SDM(HSDM)通过合并(a)用广泛扩展但通常是低分辨率、基本和不精确的数据校准的全球模型;和(b)用空间受限但更精确可靠的数据校准的区域模型,来解决截断问题。本研究旨在考察 HSDM 在国家尺度研究中克服空间截断的功效。我们比较了两种分层策略("协变量 "和 "乘法",前者使用全球模型输出作为区域模型的协变量,后者计算全球和区域模型的几何平均数)和一种非分层策略。我们从生态位截断、环境外推、模型性能、物种的预测分布和变化以及物种丰富度趋势等方面对这三种策略进行了比较。我们考察了两个研究区域(西班牙和瑞士)、108 个树种和四种未来气候情景下结果的一致性。结果表明,只有非层次策略容易受到生态位截断和环境外推法问题的影响。层次化策略,尤其是 "协变量 "策略,比非层次化策略的模型准确性更高。非层次化策略预测的物种分布范围和物种丰富度的总体值最高,随时间推移的下降幅度最小。不同策略之间的差异在瑞士更为明显,因为瑞士受生态位截断问题的影响更大。西班牙受到气候变化和环境外推法的负面影响更大。共变量 "策略的模型性能高于 "乘法 "策略。然而,由于模型的时间可转移性存在不确定性,因此需要采用多种分层方法并对其进行进一步研究。这项研究强调了采用空间嵌套分层 SDMs 的重要性,因为生态位截断和外推问题会影响非分层方法的可靠性。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Spatially‐nested hierarchical species distribution models to overcome niche truncation in national‐scale studies
Spatial truncation in species distribution models (SDMs) might cause niche truncation and model transferability issues, particularly when extrapolating models to non‐analog environmental conditions. While broad calibration extents reduce truncation issues, they usually overlook local ecological factors driving species distributions at finer resolution. Spatially‐nested hierarchical SDMs (HSDMs) address truncation by merging (a) a global model calibrated with broadly extended, yet typically low‐resolution, basic, and imprecise data; and (b) a regional model calibrated with spatially restricted but more precise and reliable data. This study aimed to examine HSDMs' efficacy to overcome spatial truncation in national‐scale studies. We compared two hierarchical strategies (‘covariate', which uses the global model output as a covariate for the regional model, and ‘multiply', which calculates the geometric mean of the global and regional models) and a non‐hierarchical strategy. The three strategies were compared in terms of niche truncation, environmental extrapolation, model performance, species' predicted distributions and shifts, and trends in species richness. We examined the consistency of the results over two study areas (Spain and Switzerland), 108 tree species, and four future climate scenarios. Only the non‐hierarchical strategy was susceptible to niche truncation, and environmental extrapolation issues. Hierarchical strategies, particularly the ‘covariate' one, presented greater model accuracy than non‐hierarchical strategies. The non‐hierarchical strategy predicted the highest overall values and the lowest decreases over time in species distribution ranges and richness. Differences between strategies were more evident in Switzerland, which was more affected by niche truncation issues. Spain was more negatively affected by climate change and environmental extrapolation. The ‘covariate' strategy exhibited higher model performance than the ‘multiply' one. However, uncertainties regarding model temporal transferability advocate for adopting and further examining multiple hierarchical approaches. This research underscores the importance of adopting spatially‐nested hierarchical SDMs given the compromised reliability of non‐hierarchical approaches due to niche truncation and extrapolation issues.
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来源期刊
Ecography
Ecography 环境科学-生态学
CiteScore
11.60
自引率
3.40%
发文量
122
审稿时长
8-16 weeks
期刊介绍: ECOGRAPHY publishes exciting, novel, and important articles that significantly advance understanding of ecological or biodiversity patterns in space or time. Papers focusing on conservation or restoration are welcomed, provided they are anchored in ecological theory and convey a general message that goes beyond a single case study. We encourage papers that seek advancing the field through the development and testing of theory or methodology, or by proposing new tools for analysis or interpretation of ecological phenomena. Manuscripts are expected to address general principles in ecology, though they may do so using a specific model system if they adequately frame the problem relative to a generalized ecological question or problem. Purely descriptive papers are considered only if breaking new ground and/or describing patterns seldom explored. Studies focused on a single species or single location are generally discouraged unless they make a significant contribution to advancing general theory or understanding of biodiversity patterns and processes. Manuscripts merely confirming or marginally extending results of previous work are unlikely to be considered in Ecography. Papers are judged by virtue of their originality, appeal to general interest, and their contribution to new developments in studies of spatial and temporal ecological patterns. There are no biases with regard to taxon, biome, or biogeographical area.
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