Jiachen Geng , Changxiu Cheng , Shi Shen , Kaixuan Dai , Tianyuan Zhang
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引用次数: 0
摘要
基于细胞自动机(CA)的模型是模拟土地利用/覆盖变化(LUCC)引起的时空景观演变的实用工具。现有模型难以全面处理非线性 LUCC 过程中的时空驱动关系。此外,大多数模型都没有考虑景观模式,因此难以为发展战略提供支持。为了克服这些障碍,本文提出了一种新型土地利用/覆盖变化模型(STAPLE),该模型涉及时空依赖性和景观演变相关属性。建立非线性时空驱动关系的潜力生成模块和采用基于景观的 CA 的空间分配模块相结合,可用于现实的土地利用/覆被变化模拟。以中国郑州为例,对所提出的模型进行了性能评估。结果表明,STAPLE 模型实现了更高的模拟精度,景观属性也得到了有效控制。它为政策制定者提供了一个可重复的工具,以探索不同未来情景下的低生态风险景观,实现可持续发展。
STAPLE: A land use/-cover change model concerning spatiotemporal dependency and properties related to landscape evolution
Cellular automata (CA) based models are practical tools to simulate the spatiotemporal landscape evolution induced by the land use/-cover change (LUCC). Existing models are struggling to comprehensively handle the spatiotemporal driving relationships amid the nonlinear LUCC process. Besides, the landscape patterns are not considered in most models, making them struggled to support the development strategies. Aiming at overcoming these obstacles, a novel land use/-cover change model concerning spatiotemporal dependency and properties related to landscape evolution (STAPLE) is proposed in this paper. A potential generating module establishing the nonlinear spatiotemporal driving relationship and a spatial allocating module employing a landscape-based CA are integrated for realistic LUCC simulations. As a case study, the proposed model is applied in Zhengzhou, China to assess its performance. It is indicated that the STAPLE model achieves a higher simulation accuracy, and the landscape properties are effectively manipulated. It provides a reproducible tool for policy-makers to explore a low-ecological-risk landscape under different future scenarios and achieve sustainable developments.
期刊介绍:
Environmental Modelling & Software publishes contributions, in the form of research articles, reviews and short communications, on recent advances in environmental modelling and/or software. The aim is to improve our capacity to represent, understand, predict or manage the behaviour of environmental systems at all practical scales, and to communicate those improvements to a wide scientific and professional audience.