巴基斯坦旁遮普省、信德省和俾路支省灾害风险管理的新干旱模式

IF 3.3 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Emily C. L. Black, Ross Maidment, Elizabeth Rees, Eleanor Nderitu
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引用次数: 0

摘要

干旱对全球南部地区的生命和生计构成持续威胁。尽管可以通过尽早发放资金来减少干旱对粮食安全的影响,但人道主义部门通常是对危机做出反应,而不是进行预测。一个重大的挑战在于设计一个能够在环境和经济多样化地区发挥作用的干旱监测和预报系统。这一点在巴基斯坦尤为明显,巴基斯坦的环境从肥沃的河床到干旱的沙漠不一而足。本文详细介绍了为巴基斯坦旁遮普省、信德省和俾路支省制定、实施和运作干旱灾害风险融资计划(DRF)的情况。开发 DRF 的关键是目标季节主要作物(冬小麦)的新产量模型,以及四项季节性干旱指标(即冬小麦产量、降水量、归一化差异植被指数 (NDVI) 和植被健康指数 (VHI))的新型预测系统。正式评估结果表明,这些预测在季节结束前 2 个月内都是准确的,因此可以提前发放资金。本文介绍的工作适用于巴基斯坦以外的地区。事实上,该模型和方法具有足够的广泛性和适应性,可用于全球南部的干旱和半干旱地区。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
A new drought model for disaster risk management in the Punjab, Sindh and Baluchistan provinces of Pakistan
Drought poses a continual threat to both lives and livelihoods in the Global South. Although the impact on food security from drought could be reduced through early release of funds, the humanitarian sector typically reacts to crises rather than anticipates them. A significant challenge lies in devising a drought monitoring and forecasting system that can function across environmentally and economically diverse regions. This is particularly evident in Pakistan, which encompasses environments ranging from fertile riverbeds to arid deserts. This paper details the development, implementation, and operation of an anticipatory drought Disaster Risk Financing (DRF) programme for the provinces of Punjab, Sindh, and Baluchistan in Pakistan. Key to the DRF development are a new yield model for the primary crop in the target season (winter wheat), and a novel forecasting system for four seasonal drought indicators - namely winter wheat yield, precipitation, normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI) and vegetation health index (VHI). Formal evaluations demonstrate that the forecasts are skillful up to 2 months in advance of the end of the season – enabling anticipatory release of funds. The work presented here is applicable beyond Pakistan. Indeed, the model and the methodologies are sufficiently broad and adaptable to be utilised in arid and semi-arid regions across the Global South.
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来源期刊
Frontiers in Climate
Frontiers in Climate Environmental Science-Environmental Science (miscellaneous)
CiteScore
4.50
自引率
0.00%
发文量
233
审稿时长
15 weeks
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