A new drought model for disaster risk management in the Punjab, Sindh and Baluchistan provinces of Pakistan

Drought poses a continual threat to both lives and livelihoods in the Global South. Although the impact on food security from drought could be reduced through early release of funds, the humanitarian sector typically reacts to crises rather than anticipates them. A significant challenge lies in devising a drought monitoring and forecasting system that can function across environmentally and economically diverse regions. This is particularly evident in Pakistan, which encompasses environments ranging from fertile riverbeds to arid deserts. This paper details the development, implementation, and operation of an anticipatory drought Disaster Risk Financing (DRF) programme for the provinces of Punjab, Sindh, and Baluchistan in Pakistan. Key to the DRF development are a new yield model for the primary crop in the target season (winter wheat), and a novel forecasting system for four seasonal drought indicators - namely winter wheat yield, precipitation, normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI) and vegetation health index (VHI). Formal evaluations demonstrate that the forecasts are skillful up to 2 months in advance of the end of the season – enabling anticipatory release of funds. The work presented here is applicable beyond Pakistan. Indeed, the model and the methodologies are sufficiently broad and adaptable to be utilised in arid and semi-arid regions across the Global South.