回归中庸，还是他们的梦想？民粹主义时代的拉丁裔投票

IF 5.9 1区社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE

American Political Science Review Pub Date : 2024-05-06 DOI:10.1017/s0003055424000406

Bernard L. Fraga, Y. Velez, Emily A. West

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引用次数: 0

摘要

2020年，拉美裔/男/女选民对乔-拜登的支持率比2016年对希拉里-克林顿的支持率低8个百分点，在所有种族/族裔群体中跌幅最大。尽管许多媒体和学术界的注意力都集中在了解误导信息、对 COVID-19 的担忧以及种族敌意对 2020 年拉美裔选民的影响上，但我们还是退后一步，澄清了 2020 年投票支持唐纳德-特朗普的拉美裔选民的人口统计学特征和核心意识形态特征。利用全国调查数据、选区回报和选民档案记录的组合，我们对选举变化的组成部分进行了分类。我们发现有证据表明，拉美裔选民的意识形态、议题立场和投票选择之间的一致性越来越高。相应地，我们观察到工人阶级拉美裔选民中支持特朗普的明显转变，以及与移民经历更接近的拉美裔选民中支持特朗普转变的适度证据。这些发现，加上对 2022 年 CES 的分析，表明共和党的转变比目前假定的更为持久。

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Reversion to the Mean, or Their Version of the Dream? Latino Voting in an Age of Populism

In 2020, support for Joe Biden among Latina/o/x voters was 8 percentage points lower than support for Hillary Clinton in 2016, the largest drop of any racial/ethnic group. While much media and academic attention has focused on understanding the impact of misinformation, COVID-19 concerns, and racial animus on Latino voters in 2020, we take a step back and clarify the demographic and core ideological characteristics of Latino voters who voted for Donald Trump in 2020. Using a mix of national survey data, precinct returns, and voter file records, we disaggregate components of electoral change. We find evidence of an increasing alignment between Latinos’ ideology, issue positions, and vote choice. Correspondingly, we observe significant pro-Trump shifts among working-class Latinos and modest evidence of a pro-Trump shift among Latinos closer to the immigration experience. These findings, coupled with an analysis of the 2022 CES, point to a more durable Republican shift than currently assumed.

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来源期刊

American Political Science Review POLITICAL SCIENCE-

CiteScore

9.80

自引率

5.90%

发文量

119

期刊介绍： American Political Science Review is political science''s premier scholarly research journal, providing peer-reviewed articles and review essays from subfields throughout the discipline. Areas covered include political theory, American politics, public policy, public administration, comparative politics, and international relations. APSR has published continuously since 1906. American Political Science Review is sold ONLY as part of a joint subscription with Perspectives on Politics and PS: Political Science & Politics.