从树木年轮和水平衡模型看特卢基-卡森河流域的径流变异性

IF 1.6 4区 地球科学 Q3 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY
D. Meko, Franco Biondi, Alan H. Taylor, I. Panyushkina, R. Thaxton, A. Prusevich, A. Shiklomanov, Richard B Lammers, S. Glidden
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引用次数: 0

摘要

区域变暖和水文系统的相关变化给美国西部流域的供水管理带来了挑战,需要更好地了解径流的时空变异性。我们将总宽度、亚年宽度和三角洲蓝色强度树环年表网络与月度水平衡模型相结合,识别了特鲁克基-卡森河流域(TCRB)的干旱及其相关的降水(P)和温度(T)足迹。逐步回归法对 1688 年至 1999 年的季节性降水和温度进行了相当准确的重建(例如,5 月至 9 月的温度 R2 = 0.50)。这些值被分解为月值,然后通过水平衡模型生成 "间接 "重建的径流量。从 1906 年到 1999 年,重建的年径流量与观测到的年径流量高度相关(r = 0.80)。扩展的径流记录显示,20 世纪的干旱在 300 年的范围内是无与伦比的严重程度。我们的水量平衡建模重建方法推进了传统的回归年代学方法,因为它允许对多种水文成分(蒸散、融雪等)进行评估。我们发现,强加的气候变暖(3 ° C 和 6 ° C)通常会加剧过去干旱中的径流赤字,但在某些年份,这种影响可以通过补偿因素(包括积雪机制的变化)得到缓解,有时甚至可以逆转。我们的研究结果强调了将多代理树环数据与水平衡建模相结合,将过去的水文干旱置于气候变化背景下的价值。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Runoff variability in the Truckee-Carson River basin from tree rings and a water balance model
Regional warming and associated changes in hydrologic systems pose challenges to water supply management in river basins of the western United States, and call for improved understanding of the spatial and temporal variability of runoff. We apply a network of total-width, subannual width and delta blue intensity tree-ring chronologies in combination with a monthly water balance model to identify droughts and their associated precipitation (P) and temperature (T) footprints in the Truckee-Carson River basin (TCRB). Stepwise regression gave reasonably accurate reconstructions, from 1688 to 1999, of seasonal P and T (e.g., R2 = 0.50 for May-Sept T). These were disaggregated to monthly values, which were then routed through a water balance model to generate “indirectly” reconstructed runoff. Reconstructed and observed annual runoff correlate highly (r = 0.80) from 1906 to 1999. The extended runoff record shows that 20th century droughts are unmatched in severity in a 300-year context. Our water balance modeling reconstruction advances the conventional regression-based dendrochronological methods as it allows for multiple hydrologic components (evapotranspiration, snowmelt, etc.) to be evaluated. We found that imposed warming (3 °C and 6 °C) generally exacerbated the runoff deficits in past droughts but that the impact could be lessened and sometimes even reversed in some years by compensating factors, including changes in snow regime. Our results underscore the value of combining multi-proxy tree-ring data with water balance modelling to place past hydrologic droughts in the context of climate change.
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来源期刊
Earth Interactions
Earth Interactions 地学-地球科学综合
CiteScore
2.70
自引率
5.00%
发文量
16
审稿时长
>12 weeks
期刊介绍: Publishes research on the interactions among the atmosphere, hydrosphere, biosphere, cryosphere, and lithosphere, including, but not limited to, research on human impacts, such as land cover change, irrigation, dams/reservoirs, urbanization, pollution, and landslides. Earth Interactions is a joint publication of the American Meteorological Society, American Geophysical Union, and American Association of Geographers.
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