多米尼加共和国电力部门去碳化的经济评估

IF 3.3 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Luis Victor-Gallardo, Susana Solórzano-Jiménez, Lucía Rodríguez-Delgado, Jessica Roccard, Jairo Quirós-Tortós, Rafael Gómez, Maribel Dionicio, Hector Baldivieso, Benoit Lefevre
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文深入分析了多米尼加共和国电力行业的去碳化问题,这对于应对气候变化和促进经济增长至关重要。我们采用稳健决策方法,通过计算模型研究了多种方案,收集了利益相关者的意见,并对每种方案进行了 1,000 次未来评估,以捕捉深层次的不确定性。我们研究了四种方案:基准、参考、天然气和可再生。可再生能源方案是最有利的方案,它提出用可再生能源(主要是太阳能和风能)加上电池取代燃煤发电。这种向可再生能源的转变需要大量投资,平均投资额为 33 亿美元;然而,运营成本的节省可以补偿这些投资。最重要的是,这一转变有望在 2050 年前带来巨大收益:预计累计平均净经济收益为 27 亿美元,2050 年平均发电成本降低 8%,直接创造 16 万个工作岗位,并避免产生约 1.4 亿吨二氧化碳。研究结果强调了到 2050 年将可再生能源发电比例过渡到 55% 的可行性和经济可行性。研究为政策制定者提供了重要的路线图,强调了可再生能源的扩展、输电网的加强以及煤炭发电的战略性替代,从而为国家能源转型提供了全面的蓝图。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Economic evaluation of decarbonizing the electricity sector in the Dominican Republic
This paper presents an in-depth analysis of decarbonizing the electricity sector in the Dominican Republic, pivotal for addressing climate change and fostering economic growth. Employing the robust-decision making methodology, we studied multiple scenarios via computational models, capturing inputs from stakeholders and evaluating each scenario across 1,000 futures to capture deep uncertainty. Four scenarios were examined: baseline, reference, natural gas, and renewable. The renewable scenario emerged as the most advantageous, proposing the replacement of coal-fired power generation with renewable sources, primarily solar and wind, coupled with batteries. A significant investment, averaging US$3.3 billion, is necessary for this shift toward renewable energy; however, these investments are overcompensated by savings in operational costs. Crucially, this transition promises substantial benefits by 2050: an estimated cumulative average net economic gain of US$2.7 billion, an 8% reduction in average generation costs in 2050, the creation of 160,000 direct jobs, and the avoidance of circa 140 million tons of CO2. The findings underscore the feasibility and economic viability of transitioning to a 55% renewable energy generation by 2050. The study offers a critical roadmap for policymakers, highlighting renewable energy expansion, transmission grid strengthening, and strategic coal generation replacement, thus offering a comprehensive blueprint for the nation's energy transition.
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来源期刊
Frontiers in Climate
Frontiers in Climate Environmental Science-Environmental Science (miscellaneous)
CiteScore
4.50
自引率
0.00%
发文量
233
审稿时长
15 weeks
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