Assessment of the Effect of Land Use and Climate Change on Natural Resources and Agriculture in the Subarnarekha Basin, India, Using the SWAT

In the present study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool was applied to determine the impacts of changing Land Use and Land Cover (LULC), Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory – Earth System Model Version 2, and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5 climate scenario on the monthly streamflow in the Subarnarekha basin of India. The results showed increased flow due to a reduction in agricultural area, a rise in built-up area, and a reduction in water bodies due to LULC change. In addition, lower annual precipitation and increased projected temperature were observed under RCP8.5. Although annual precipitation is decreasing, some components of the water balance are slightly increasing. From 2013 to 2020, surface flow increased by 98.85 mm and water yield decreased by 13.33 mm. However, in the climate change scenario, surface flow increased by 142.85 mm. Water yield decreased by 21.88 mm, lateral flow slightly decreased by 7.06 mm, and a further significant decrease 68.37% was noted in groundwater flow. The downward trend in groundwater flow is a serious concern, and therefore, more surface water storage structures must be planned to increase groundwater recharge and capture the increased surface flow. The model performance was statistically tested for NSE (Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency), R², and PBIAS (percent bias). During the calibration period and validation stages, NSE, R², and PBIAS were found to be 0.72, 0.83, and − 15.20%, and 0.85, 0.82, and − 27%, respectively, with the 2013 LULC map. The decreased monthly water availability and declining trend of winter rainfall need to be taken care of while planning the cropping pattern of the basin.