COVID-19 对泰国道路交通事故的影响

IF 3.2 Q3 TRANSPORTATION
Apichai Tongpradubpetch, Kunnawee Kanitpong
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本研究的主要目的是利用时间序列和间断时间序列分析法研究 COVID-19 对泰国道路交通事故的影响。为了实现这一目标,研究人员从泰国公路局(DOH)获取了道路交通事故数据,其中包括总交通事故、单车交通事故、死亡事故、致命交通事故、超速交通事故和酒驾交通事故,并利用这些数据建立了季节自回归综合移动平均(SARIMA)时间序列模型和间断时间序列(ITS)模型。SARIMA 模型用于预测在没有 COVID-19 的情况下的车祸数量,然后将其与观测值进行比较,以确定两者之间的差异。在时间序列事故数据集上使用 ITS 模型评估了旨在解决 COVID-19 扩散问题的政策变化的影响。目的是确定干预措施是否对结果产生了有意义的因果影响。结果表明,COVID-19 的第一波行动导致所有道路交通事故指标显著下降,而不是急剧上升到高峰。在释放了第一波传播的锁定措施后,发现所有碰撞指标也都有所上升。不过,COVID-19 的第三波疫情持续时间最长,接近 7 个月,也导致车祸数量下降,但下降幅度不及第一波疫情。此外,间断时间序列的结果还显示,宵禁和娱乐场所的关闭分别与晚上 10 点至凌晨 4 点超速撞车和酒后驾车撞车数量的显著下降有关。由此可见,宵禁和禁止销售含酒精饮料等 COVID-19 应对措施导致了超速和酒后驾车撞车数量的下降。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Impact of COVID-19 on road crashes in Thailand

The main goal of this study is to investigate the impact of COVID-19 on road crashes in Thailand using time series and interrupted time series analysis. To achieve the goal, road crash data from the Department of Highway (DOH), which includes total crashes, single vehicle crashes, fatalities, fatal crashes, speeding crashes, and drunk driving crashes, was obtained to conduct Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) time series models and Interrupted Time Series (ITS) models. SARIMA models were applied to forecast the number of crashes in the absence of COVID-19 then compare them to the observed values to identify the difference. The impact of a policy change aimed at addressing the spread of COVID-19 was assessed using ITS models on a time series accident dataset. The goal was to ascertain if the intervention had a meaningful and causative impact on the outcome. The result showed that the first wave of COVID-19 caused a significant reduction in all road crash indicators instead of skyrocketing to a peak. After releasing the lockdown measures from the first wave of spreading, an increase was found in all of the crash indicators as well. However, the third wave of COVID-19, which lasted longest for nearly 7 months, also caused a decrease in the number of crashes, but not as much as the first wave of the outbreak. Moreover, the result from the interrupted time series also revealed that curfews and the closure of entertainment places are associated with a significant decrease in the number of speeding crashes and drunk driving crashes from 10 p.m. to 4 a.m., respectively. It can be observed that the COVID-19 countermeasures, such as curfews and bans on the sales of alcoholic beverages, led to a drop in the number of speeding and drunk driving crashes.

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来源期刊
IATSS Research
IATSS Research TRANSPORTATION-
CiteScore
6.40
自引率
6.20%
发文量
44
审稿时长
42 weeks
期刊介绍: First published in 1977 as an international journal sponsored by the International Association of Traffic and Safety Sciences, IATSS Research has contributed to the dissemination of interdisciplinary wisdom on ideal mobility, particularly in Asia. IATSS Research is an international refereed journal providing a platform for the exchange of scientific findings on transportation and safety across a wide range of academic fields, with particular emphasis on the links between scientific findings and practice in society and cultural contexts. IATSS Research welcomes submission of original research articles and reviews that satisfy the following conditions: 1.Relevant to transportation and safety, and the multiple impacts of transportation systems on security, human health, and the environment. 2.Contains important policy and practical implications based on scientific evidence in the applicable academic field. In addition to welcoming general submissions, IATSS Research occasionally plans and publishes special feature sections and special issues composed of invited articles addressing specific topics.
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