Possible sarcopenia and risk of chronic kidney disease: a four-year follow-up study and Mendelian randomization analysis.

Introduction: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a common risk factor for sarcopenia. However, whether sarcopenia increases the risk of CKD remains unclear. To investigate the longitudinal and causal associations between possible sarcopenia and CKD, this study was performed.

Methods: Possible sarcopenia was defined according to the Asian Working Group for Sarcopenia in 2019. Participants aged ≥ 40 years were recruited from the baseline survey of the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study and followed up for four years. Binary logistic regression was used to evaluate the cross-sectional and longitudinal associations between possible sarcopenia, low muscle strength, low physical performance and CKD. Propensity score matching was used to balance the intergroup differences. Subgroup and interactive analyses were adopted to identify potential interactive effects. Mendelian Randomization analysis was used to assess the causal association between appendicular lean mass (ALM) and CKD.

Results: After data cleansing, a total of 7296 participants were included in the baseline survey. In the cross-sectional analyses, the odds ratios (ORs) of prevalent CKD were 1.50 (95% CI = 1.23-1.84, p < 0.001) for possible sarcopenia, 1.37 (95% CI = 1.10-1.70, p < 0.01) for low muscle strength and 1.42 (95% CI = 1.16-1.74, p < 0.001) for low physical performance in the full models. No significant interaction effects of covariates were detected (all P for interaction > 0.05). After four years of follow-up, an increased risk of incident CKD was also observed in participants with possible sarcopenia (OR = 1.66, 95% CI = 1.13-2.44, p = 0.010) and low physical performance (OR = 1.69, 95% CI = 1.16-2.45, p = 0.006), but not in participants with low muscle strength (OR = 1.19, 95% CI = 0.75-1.88, p = 0.469). In the Mendelian Randomization analysis, the inverse variance weighted estimator showed that a 1-standard deviation increase of genetically predicted ALM was associated with a lower risk of CKD (OR = 0.92, 95% CI = 0.85-0.99, p = 0.035). All the sensitivity analyses supported the main findings.

Conclusions: Possible sarcopenia is an independent risk factor for CKD and may serve as a predictor of CKD for early identification and intervention.