{"title":"风险偏好与难民移民欧洲:实验分析","authors":"Daniel Joël Elanga Mendogo, Géraldine Bocquého","doi":"10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2024.102544","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Although the large majority of Syrians fleeing the civil war remain in neighbouring or nearby countries, others embark on hazardous land or sea crossings in pursuit of the uncertain prospect of obtaining refugee status in Europe. Understanding in what ways Syrian migrants who stay in nearby countries differ from those who seek asylum in Europe can help to better target European asylum policies. We address this issue by combining two experimental databases of refugees in Egypt and Luxembourg. First, we measure original risk preferences on the Egypt sample and show that Cumulative Prospect Theory (CPT) is better suited for modelling refugee behaviour under risk than Expected Utility Theory (EUT). Second, we compare the risk preference parameters of the two samples under the CPT framework and find that, on average, refugees in Egypt are more loss averse and overweight low probabilities more than their counterparts who migrated to Luxembourg. These results suggest a possible self-selection process among refugees migrating to Europe based on their risk preferences, which challenges current policy schemes.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51439,"journal":{"name":"European Journal of Political Economy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.3000,"publicationDate":"2024-04-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Risk preferences and refugee migration to Europe: An experimental analysis\",\"authors\":\"Daniel Joël Elanga Mendogo, Géraldine Bocquého\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2024.102544\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><p>Although the large majority of Syrians fleeing the civil war remain in neighbouring or nearby countries, others embark on hazardous land or sea crossings in pursuit of the uncertain prospect of obtaining refugee status in Europe. Understanding in what ways Syrian migrants who stay in nearby countries differ from those who seek asylum in Europe can help to better target European asylum policies. We address this issue by combining two experimental databases of refugees in Egypt and Luxembourg. First, we measure original risk preferences on the Egypt sample and show that Cumulative Prospect Theory (CPT) is better suited for modelling refugee behaviour under risk than Expected Utility Theory (EUT). Second, we compare the risk preference parameters of the two samples under the CPT framework and find that, on average, refugees in Egypt are more loss averse and overweight low probabilities more than their counterparts who migrated to Luxembourg. These results suggest a possible self-selection process among refugees migrating to Europe based on their risk preferences, which challenges current policy schemes.</p></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":51439,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"European Journal of Political Economy\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":2.3000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-04-29\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"European Journal of Political Economy\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"96\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0176268024000466\",\"RegionNum\":3,\"RegionCategory\":\"经济学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"ECONOMICS\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"European Journal of Political Economy","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0176268024000466","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
Risk preferences and refugee migration to Europe: An experimental analysis
Although the large majority of Syrians fleeing the civil war remain in neighbouring or nearby countries, others embark on hazardous land or sea crossings in pursuit of the uncertain prospect of obtaining refugee status in Europe. Understanding in what ways Syrian migrants who stay in nearby countries differ from those who seek asylum in Europe can help to better target European asylum policies. We address this issue by combining two experimental databases of refugees in Egypt and Luxembourg. First, we measure original risk preferences on the Egypt sample and show that Cumulative Prospect Theory (CPT) is better suited for modelling refugee behaviour under risk than Expected Utility Theory (EUT). Second, we compare the risk preference parameters of the two samples under the CPT framework and find that, on average, refugees in Egypt are more loss averse and overweight low probabilities more than their counterparts who migrated to Luxembourg. These results suggest a possible self-selection process among refugees migrating to Europe based on their risk preferences, which challenges current policy schemes.
期刊介绍:
The aim of the European Journal of Political Economy is to disseminate original theoretical and empirical research on economic phenomena within a scope that encompasses collective decision making, political behavior, and the role of institutions. Contributions are invited from the international community of researchers. Manuscripts must be published in English. Starting 2008, the European Journal of Political Economy is indexed in the Social Sciences Citation Index published by Thomson Scientific (formerly ISI).