机理小气候模型和植物虫害风险建模

IF 4.3 1区 农林科学 Q1 ENTOMOLOGY
Jonathan R. Mosedale, Dominic Eyre, Anastasia Korycinska, Matthew Everatt, Sam Grant, Brittany Trew, Neil Kaye, Deborah Hemming, Ilya M. D. Maclean
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引用次数: 0

摘要

气候条件是决定植物害虫是否猖獗的关键因素。害虫对温度的反应模型是害虫风险评估和管理不可或缺的一部分,有助于为监测和控制措施提供信息。在这些模型中,气象数据作为预测因子的广泛使用损害了模型的可靠性,因为这些测量数据与害虫生物体或其体温所经历的条件并不是热耦合的。在此,我们将介绍如何利用机理小气候模型来估算害虫生物体所经历的条件,从而为害虫风险建模带来显著优势。这些成熟的物理模型可以捕捉景观、植被和气候如何相互作用,从而决定害虫所处的环境。根据小气候条件得出的害虫风险评估结果很可能与气象站测量结果大相径庭。由于决定小气候条件及其对害虫生物学影响的机制非常复杂,这种差异的程度会因地形、时间以及害虫栖息地和行为而异。小气候模型的应用曾经仅限于相对单一的生境,而现在这些模型可以很容易地应用于在广阔而多样的地貌中生成每小时的时间序列。我们概述了将小气候模型更常规地应用于害虫风险建模的好处和挑战。机理小气候模型提供了一种启发式工具,有助于区分模型失效的物理、数学和生物原因。使用这些模型还有助于了解害虫生态学、行为学和生理学如何介导气候与害虫反应之间的关系。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

Mechanistic microclimate models and plant pest risk modelling

Mechanistic microclimate models and plant pest risk modelling

Climatic conditions are key determining factors of whether plant pests flourish. Models of pest response to temperature are integral to pest risk assessment and management, helping to inform surveillance and control measures. The widespread use of meteorological data as predictors in these models compromises their reliability as these measurements are not thermally coupled to the conditions experienced by pest organisms or their body temperatures. Here, we present how mechanistic microclimate models can be used to estimate the conditions experienced by pest organisms to provide significant benefits to pest risk modelling. These well-established physical models capture how landscape, vegetation and climate interact to determine the conditions to which pests are exposed. Assessments of pest risk derived from microclimate conditions are likely to significantly diverge from those derived from weather station measurements. The magnitude of this divergence will vary across a landscape, over time and according to pest habitats and behaviour due to the complex mechanisms that determine microclimate conditions and their effect on pest biology. Whereas the application of microclimate models was once restricted to relatively homogeneous habitats, these models can now be applied readily to generate hourly time series across extensive and varied landscapes. We outline the benefits and challenges of more routine application of microclimate models to pest risk modelling. Mechanistic microclimate models provide a heuristic tool that helps discriminate between physical, mathematical and biological causes of model failure. Their use can also help understand how pest ecology, behaviour and physiology mediate the relationship between climate and pest response.

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来源期刊
Journal of Pest Science
Journal of Pest Science 生物-昆虫学
CiteScore
10.40
自引率
8.30%
发文量
114
审稿时长
6-12 weeks
期刊介绍: Journal of Pest Science publishes high-quality papers on all aspects of pest science in agriculture, horticulture (including viticulture), forestry, urban pests, and stored products research, including health and safety issues. Journal of Pest Science reports on advances in control of pests and animal vectors of diseases, the biology, ethology and ecology of pests and their antagonists, and the use of other beneficial organisms in pest control. The journal covers all noxious or damaging groups of animals, including arthropods, nematodes, molluscs, and vertebrates. Journal of Pest Science devotes special attention to emerging and innovative pest control strategies, including the side effects of such approaches on non-target organisms, for example natural enemies and pollinators, and the implementation of these strategies in integrated pest management. Journal of Pest Science also publishes papers on the management of agro- and forest ecosystems where this is relevant to pest control. Papers on important methodological developments relevant for pest control will be considered as well.
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