CMIP6 模型中北极九月海冰浓度偏差及其与其他模型变量的关系

IF 4.8 2区 地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
Claude Frankignoul, Lea Raillard, Brady Ferster, Young-Oh Kwon
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引用次数: 0

摘要

摘要 参加耦合模式相互比较项目(CMIP)的模式在北极海冰气候学上表现出很大的偏差,这似乎与季节性大气和海洋环流的偏差有关。利用从 1979 年到 2014 年 34 个 CMIP6 模式的历史运行,我们研究了 9 月份气候学海冰浓度(SIC)偏差与大气和海洋模式气候学之间的联系。两个主要的 EOF 很好地描述了 9 月海冰浓度的主要模式间差异,它们共同解释了其 65%的方差。第一个 EOF 代表低估或高估了整个北极地区的 SIC,而第二个 EOF 则描述了大西洋和太平洋地区相反的 SIC 偏差。回归分析表明,这两种 SIC 模式与夏季北极地表热通量(主要是短波和长波辐射)偏离多模式平均值密切相关,而在大西洋扇区,大西洋来水起了作用。此外,还发现了与夏季云量、低层湿度、对流层上层或下层温度/环流以及海洋变量之间的局部和全球联系。如三个气候模式所示,在北极地区,各模式与 SIC 偏差的局部关系基本相似,但受大西洋入流影响的程度不同。在全球尺度上,三个模式中的一个表明夏季大气环流对 9 月 SIC 有很大影响,而在另外两个模式中,大气影响主要是通过热力学产生的。其中一个模式与北大西洋环流有明显联系。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Arctic September sea ice concentration biases in CMIP6 models and their relationships with other model variables
Abstract The models that participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) exhibit large biases in Arctic sea ice climatology that seem related to biases in seasonal atmospheric and oceanic circulations. Using historical runs of 34 CMIP6 models from 1979 to 2014, we investigate the links between the climatological sea ice concentration (SIC) biases in September and atmospheric and oceanic model climatologies. The main inter-model spread of September SIC is well described by two leading EOFs, which together explain ∼65% of its variance. The first EOF represents an underestimation or overestimation of SIC in the whole Arctic, while the second EOF describes opposite SIC biases in the Atlantic and Pacific sectors. Regression analysis indicates that the two SIC modes are closely related to departures from the multi-model mean of Arctic surface heat fluxes during summer, primarily shortwave and longwave radiation, with incoming Atlantic Water playing a role in the Atlantic sector. Local and global links with summer cloud cover, low-level humidity, upper or lower troposphere temperature/circulation, and oceanic variables are also found. As illustrated for three climate models, the local relationships with the SIC biases are mostly similar in the Arctic across the models but show varying degrees of Atlantic inflow influence. On global scale, a strong influence of the summer atmospheric circulation on September SIC is suggested for one of the three models, while the atmospheric influence is primarily via thermodynamics in the other two. Clear links to the North Atlantic Ocean circulation are seen in one of the models.
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来源期刊
Journal of Climate
Journal of Climate 地学-气象与大气科学
CiteScore
9.30
自引率
14.30%
发文量
490
审稿时长
7.5 months
期刊介绍: The Journal of Climate (JCLI) (ISSN: 0894-8755; eISSN: 1520-0442) publishes research that advances basic understanding of the dynamics and physics of the climate system on large spatial scales, including variability of the atmosphere, oceans, land surface, and cryosphere; past, present, and projected future changes in the climate system; and climate simulation and prediction.
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