Trend and interannual variability of summer marine heatwaves in the tropical Indian ocean: Patterns, mixed layer heat budget, and seasonal prediction

Marine heatwaves (MHWs) are extreme sea surface temperature (SST) events in all ocean basins, with far-reaching impacts on marine ecosystems and socio-economy. The leading patterns, trend, and interannual variability of summer MHWs in the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) are investigated in this study. The first empirical orthogonal function (EOF) mode of frequency of MHWs exhibits a monopole pattern over the entire basin. This mode is highly associated with the concurrent Indian Ocean Basin warming, indicating a remarkable trend over the past four decades. The linear trend in MHW properties largely relates to increased summer Indian Ocean mean SST. The second EOF mode exhibits a zonal dipole with the MHW numbers increasing in the west and decreasing in the east. On the interannual timescale, the first two EOF modes are remotely affected by antecedent and concurrent El Niño events, respectively. The ocean mixed layer budget is utilized for examining the formation of different summer MHW patterns. During the preceding spring, the surface heat flux is important for the development of MHWs, while the ocean advections play a secondary role in the South Indian Ocean for the MHW monopole. Once the SST anomaly rises in summer, the ocean advections play a dominant role in maintaining the SST. Last, we assess the prediction skill of summer TIO MHWs by performing a bilinear seasonal statistical prediction model. Our results suggest the frequency of summer MHWs in the TIO could be predicted one season in advance. This study has great implications for understanding and predicting ocean extreme events in the TIO.