Rethinking the Role of Biodosimetry to Assess Risks for Acute Radiation Syndrome in Very Large Radiation Events: Reconsidering Legacy Concepts.

The development of effective uses of biodosimetry in large-scale events has been hampered by residual, i.e., "legacy" thinking based on strategies that scale up from biodosimetry in small accidents. Consequently, there remain vestiges of unrealistic assumptions about the likely magnitude of victims in "large" radiation events and incomplete analyses of the logistics for making biodosimetry measurements/assessments in the field for primary triage. Elements remain from an unrealistic focus on developing methods to use biodosimetry in the initial stage of triage for a million or more victims. Based on recent events and concomitant increased awareness of the potential for large-scale events as well as increased sophistication in planning and experience in the development of biodosimetry, a more realistic assessment of the most effective roles of biodosimetry in large-scale events is urgently needed. We argue this leads to a conclusion that the most effective utilization of biodosimetry in very large events would occur in a second stage of triage, after initially winnowing the population by identifying those most in need of acute medical attention, based on calculations of geographic sites where significant exposures could have occurred. Understanding the potential roles and limitations of biodosimetry in large-scale events involving significant radiation exposure should lead to development of the most effective and useful biodosimetric techniques for each stage of triage for acute radiation syndrome injuries, i.e., based on more realistic assumptions about the underlying event and the logistics for carrying out biodosimetry for large populations.