PREDICTORS OF ACUTE HEART FAILURE OUTCOMES AT UNIVERSITY COLLEGE HOSPITAL, IBADAN, NIGERIA.

Background: Studies of acute heart failure (AHF) outcomes suggest that there are different predictors of mortality depending on region, ethnicity, and gender.

Objective: The purpose of this study was to identify predictors of six months' post discharge outcome among AHF patients in a Nigerian tertiary hospital.

Methods and materials: This study was a prospective observational study conducted at the cardiology unit of the Department of Medicine at the University College Hospital Ibadan. One hundred and sixty AHF participants ≥ 18 years old were recruited.

Results: The mean age of the cohort was 58.0±15.1 years and most were males (59.4%). The independent predictors for death outcome after six months of discharge for AHF and the adjusted hazard ratio) (95% CI) were male gender 2.77 (1.17 -6.56); p =0.020 ; systolic blood pressure (mmHg) 0.98 (0.96 - 0.99); p = 0.011 ; and the presence of hepatomegaly 2.58 (1.02 - 6.51); p = 0.045 . Independent predictors for readmission or rehospitalization within 6 months after discharge were presence of right abdominal pain adjusted HR (95% CI): 2.07(1.14 - 3.76), p=0.017; SBP 0.98(0.96 - 0.99), p=0.005. Independent predictors for composite endpoint were male gender: adjusted HR: 2.08 (1.16 - 3.72), p= 0.014 and pericardial effusion and tamponade: 5.31(1.79 - 15.74), p=0.003 .

Conclusion: The study provided an insight into the factors contributing to outcomes six-month after admission in a tertiary centre in South-Western Nigeria, and it highlighted the predictive role of systolic blood pressure.