Donald O Mutti, Loraine T Sinnott, Susan A Cotter, Lisa A Jones-Jordan, Robert N Kleinstein, Ruth E Manny, J Daniel Twelker, Karla Zadnik
{"title":"按年龄、性别和种族预测儿童近视的发生：CLEERE研究的结果。","authors":"Donald O Mutti, Loraine T Sinnott, Susan A Cotter, Lisa A Jones-Jordan, Robert N Kleinstein, Ruth E Manny, J Daniel Twelker, Karla Zadnik","doi":"10.1097/OPX.0000000000002127","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Significance: </strong>Clinicians and researchers would benefit from being able to predict the onset of myopia for an individual child. This report provides a model for calculating the probability of myopia onset, year-by-year and cumulatively, based on results from the largest, most ethnically diverse study of myopia onset in the United States.</p><p><strong>Purpose: </strong>This study aimed to model the probability of the onset of myopia in previously nonmyopic school-aged children.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>Children aged 6 years to less than 14 years of age at baseline participating in the Collaborative Longitudinal Evaluation of Ethnicity and Refractive Error (CLEERE) Study who were nonmyopic and less hyperopic than +3.00 D (spherical equivalent) were followed up for 1 to 7 years through eighth grade. Annual measurements included cycloplegic autorefraction, keratometry, ultrasound axial dimensions, and parental report of children's near work and time spent in outdoor and/or sports activities. The onset of myopia was defined as the first visit with at least -0.75 D of myopia in each principal meridian. The predictive model was built using discrete time survival analysis and evaluated with C statistics.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>The model of the probability of the onset of myopia included cycloplegic spherical equivalent refractive error, the horizontal/vertical component of astigmatism (J0), age, sex, and race/ethnicity. Onset of myopia was more likely with lower amounts of hyperopia and less positive/more negative values of J0. Younger Asian American females had the highest eventual probability of onset, whereas older White males had the lowest. Model performance increased with older baseline age, with C statistics ranging from 0.83 at 6 years of age to 0.92 at 13 years.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>The probability of the onset of myopia can be estimated for children in the major racial/ethnic groups within the United States on a year-by-year and cumulative basis up to age 14 years based on a simple set of refractive error and demographic variables.</p>","PeriodicalId":19649,"journal":{"name":"Optometry and Vision Science","volume":"101 4","pages":"179-186"},"PeriodicalIF":1.6000,"publicationDate":"2024-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11060695/pdf/","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Predicting the onset of myopia in children by age, sex, and ethnicity: Results from the CLEERE Study.\",\"authors\":\"Donald O Mutti, Loraine T Sinnott, Susan A Cotter, Lisa A Jones-Jordan, Robert N Kleinstein, Ruth E Manny, J Daniel Twelker, Karla Zadnik\",\"doi\":\"10.1097/OPX.0000000000002127\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p><strong>Significance: </strong>Clinicians and researchers would benefit from being able to predict the onset of myopia for an individual child. This report provides a model for calculating the probability of myopia onset, year-by-year and cumulatively, based on results from the largest, most ethnically diverse study of myopia onset in the United States.</p><p><strong>Purpose: </strong>This study aimed to model the probability of the onset of myopia in previously nonmyopic school-aged children.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>Children aged 6 years to less than 14 years of age at baseline participating in the Collaborative Longitudinal Evaluation of Ethnicity and Refractive Error (CLEERE) Study who were nonmyopic and less hyperopic than +3.00 D (spherical equivalent) were followed up for 1 to 7 years through eighth grade. Annual measurements included cycloplegic autorefraction, keratometry, ultrasound axial dimensions, and parental report of children's near work and time spent in outdoor and/or sports activities. The onset of myopia was defined as the first visit with at least -0.75 D of myopia in each principal meridian. The predictive model was built using discrete time survival analysis and evaluated with C statistics.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>The model of the probability of the onset of myopia included cycloplegic spherical equivalent refractive error, the horizontal/vertical component of astigmatism (J0), age, sex, and race/ethnicity. Onset of myopia was more likely with lower amounts of hyperopia and less positive/more negative values of J0. Younger Asian American females had the highest eventual probability of onset, whereas older White males had the lowest. Model performance increased with older baseline age, with C statistics ranging from 0.83 at 6 years of age to 0.92 at 13 years.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>The probability of the onset of myopia can be estimated for children in the major racial/ethnic groups within the United States on a year-by-year and cumulative basis up to age 14 years based on a simple set of refractive error and demographic variables.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":19649,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Optometry and Vision Science\",\"volume\":\"101 4\",\"pages\":\"179-186\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":1.6000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-04-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11060695/pdf/\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Optometry and Vision Science\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"3\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1097/OPX.0000000000002127\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"医学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q3\",\"JCRName\":\"OPHTHALMOLOGY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Optometry and Vision Science","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1097/OPX.0000000000002127","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"OPHTHALMOLOGY","Score":null,"Total":0}
Predicting the onset of myopia in children by age, sex, and ethnicity: Results from the CLEERE Study.
Significance: Clinicians and researchers would benefit from being able to predict the onset of myopia for an individual child. This report provides a model for calculating the probability of myopia onset, year-by-year and cumulatively, based on results from the largest, most ethnically diverse study of myopia onset in the United States.
Purpose: This study aimed to model the probability of the onset of myopia in previously nonmyopic school-aged children.
Methods: Children aged 6 years to less than 14 years of age at baseline participating in the Collaborative Longitudinal Evaluation of Ethnicity and Refractive Error (CLEERE) Study who were nonmyopic and less hyperopic than +3.00 D (spherical equivalent) were followed up for 1 to 7 years through eighth grade. Annual measurements included cycloplegic autorefraction, keratometry, ultrasound axial dimensions, and parental report of children's near work and time spent in outdoor and/or sports activities. The onset of myopia was defined as the first visit with at least -0.75 D of myopia in each principal meridian. The predictive model was built using discrete time survival analysis and evaluated with C statistics.
Results: The model of the probability of the onset of myopia included cycloplegic spherical equivalent refractive error, the horizontal/vertical component of astigmatism (J0), age, sex, and race/ethnicity. Onset of myopia was more likely with lower amounts of hyperopia and less positive/more negative values of J0. Younger Asian American females had the highest eventual probability of onset, whereas older White males had the lowest. Model performance increased with older baseline age, with C statistics ranging from 0.83 at 6 years of age to 0.92 at 13 years.
Conclusions: The probability of the onset of myopia can be estimated for children in the major racial/ethnic groups within the United States on a year-by-year and cumulative basis up to age 14 years based on a simple set of refractive error and demographic variables.
期刊介绍：
Optometry and Vision Science is the monthly peer-reviewed scientific publication of the American Academy of Optometry, publishing original research since 1924. Optometry and Vision Science is an internationally recognized source for education and information on current discoveries in optometry, physiological optics, vision science, and related fields. The journal considers original contributions that advance clinical practice, vision science, and public health. Authors should remember that the journal reaches readers worldwide and their submissions should be relevant and of interest to a broad audience. Topical priorities include, but are not limited to: clinical and laboratory research, evidence-based reviews, contact lenses, ocular growth and refractive error development, eye movements, visual function and perception, biology of the eye and ocular disease, epidemiology and public health, biomedical optics and instrumentation, novel and important clinical observations and treatments, and optometric education.
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