Impact of flowering temperature on litchi yield under climate change: A case study in Taiwan

Litchi is a subtropical fruit tree that undergoes flower bud differentiation under low-temperature conditions. However, climate change has affected litchi production in Taiwan, causing litchi farmers to experience economic losses. This study explored the influence of flowering temperature on litchi yield under climate change in Taiwan by analyzing litchi production data from 2001 to 2020 and observation data from meteorological stations in litchi-producing areas. Historical observed data were used to construct several regression models relating temperature to yield, with the performance of the models used to determine critical temperature thresholds for litchi flower bud differentiation. Analytical climate data (CMIP5) were used to project yield changes in Taiwan’s litchi-producing regions under anticipated low-temperature conditions for the mid- (2036–2065) and late- (2071–2100) 21st century. The variable that exhibited the highest correlation with yield changes was the number of days with an average flowering temperature below 16 °C. The production yield, in terms of yield variation per hectare, is expected to decrease by 12 % to 35 % by the end of the 21st century (2071–2100). Given the projected decline in the number of cooler days due to climate change, existing litchi cultivars may become unsuitable for cultivation in production areas in southern Taiwan.

Practical Implications

Some fruit trees require a period of low temperature before their flowering stage. Climate change is expected to cause warming of winter temperatures in Taiwan, which is likely to lead to reduced litchi flowering. The current study assessed the potential effects of climate change on litchi flowering in the future.

Historical observed data were used to establish models, and critical temperature thresholds for litchi flowering were determined on the basis of model performance. Days with average temperatures below 16 °C exhibited the highest correlation with litchi yield among the tested thresholds. According to our results, farmers can use this 16 °C threshold to evaluate the potential effects of future climate change at their current farm locations and to identify other areas with similar or more favorable conditions for litchi cultivation. For agricultural researchers, this temperature threshold could provide a target for new litchi variety breeding and a reference basis for research on optimal cultivation methods.

Notably, because climate change projection data have a high degree of uncertainty, the results of this study may differ from those of studies using different databases. In this study, we used an ensemble of CMIP5 projections incorporating data from models from various research centers around the world, which can provide more robust results based on an ensemble mean than those obtainable from a single model or a few models. In addition, rainfall is a crucial factor during the flowering growth stage. Future studies should consider the effects of rainfall and temperature on yield and should consider using a model with yield being considered a function of both of these variables to improve model accuracy.

To conclude, the present study provides researchers, policymakers, and other stakeholders with insights into the primary effects of climate change on litchi production. It also lays the groundwork for future climate adaptation strategies in Taiwan’s litchi industry.