{"title":"预测Trilocha varians (Walker, 1855) (Lepidoptera: Bombycidae)目前和未来在中国的适宜分布范围","authors":"Qianqian Qian, Danping Xu, Wenkai Liao, Zhihang Zhuo","doi":"10.1017/s0007485324000117","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<jats:italic>Trilocha varians</jats:italic> is one of the major pests of <jats:italic>Ficus</jats:italic> spp. Based on 19 bioclimatic variables provided by the Worldclim, our study analysed the suitable distribution areas of <jats:italic>T. varians</jats:italic> under current and future climate changes (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5) for two periods (the 2050s and 2090s) using the maximum entropy algorithm (MaxEnt) model. Key environmental variables affecting the geographic distribution of <jats:italic>T. varians</jats:italic> were also identified, and the changes in the area of suitable range under current and future climate changes were compared. The results showed that the key environmental variables affecting the distribution of <jats:italic>T. varians</jats:italic> were temperature and precipitation, comprising annual mean temperature (bio1), temperature seasonality (standard deviation × 100) (bio4), precipitation of driest month (bio14), and precipitation of driest quarter (bio17). Under the current climatic conditions, the suitable distribution area of <jats:italic>T. varians</jats:italic> is within the range of 92°13′E–122°08′E, 18°17′N–31°55′N. The current high, medium, and low suitable areas for <jats:italic>T. varians</jats:italic> predicted by the MaxEnt model are 14.00 × 10<jats:sup>4</jats:sup>, 21.50 × 10<jats:sup>4</jats:sup>, and 71.95 × 10<jats:sup>4</jats:sup> km<jats:sup>2</jats:sup>, of which the high suitable areas are mainly distributed in southern Guangdong, southwestern Guangxi, western Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Hainan. Under different future climatic conditions, some of the high, medium, and low suitability zones for <jats:italic>T. varians</jats:italic> increased and some decreased, but the mass centre did not migrate significantly. The Pearl River Basin is predicted to remain the main distribution area of <jats:italic>T. varians</jats:italic>.","PeriodicalId":9370,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of Entomological Research","volume":"22 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.6000,"publicationDate":"2024-05-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Predicting the current and future suitable distribution range of Trilocha varians (Walker, 1855) (Lepidoptera: Bombycidae) in China\",\"authors\":\"Qianqian Qian, Danping Xu, Wenkai Liao, Zhihang Zhuo\",\"doi\":\"10.1017/s0007485324000117\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<jats:italic>Trilocha varians</jats:italic> is one of the major pests of <jats:italic>Ficus</jats:italic> spp. Based on 19 bioclimatic variables provided by the Worldclim, our study analysed the suitable distribution areas of <jats:italic>T. varians</jats:italic> under current and future climate changes (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5) for two periods (the 2050s and 2090s) using the maximum entropy algorithm (MaxEnt) model. Key environmental variables affecting the geographic distribution of <jats:italic>T. varians</jats:italic> were also identified, and the changes in the area of suitable range under current and future climate changes were compared. The results showed that the key environmental variables affecting the distribution of <jats:italic>T. varians</jats:italic> were temperature and precipitation, comprising annual mean temperature (bio1), temperature seasonality (standard deviation × 100) (bio4), precipitation of driest month (bio14), and precipitation of driest quarter (bio17). Under the current climatic conditions, the suitable distribution area of <jats:italic>T. varians</jats:italic> is within the range of 92°13′E–122°08′E, 18°17′N–31°55′N. The current high, medium, and low suitable areas for <jats:italic>T. varians</jats:italic> predicted by the MaxEnt model are 14.00 × 10<jats:sup>4</jats:sup>, 21.50 × 10<jats:sup>4</jats:sup>, and 71.95 × 10<jats:sup>4</jats:sup> km<jats:sup>2</jats:sup>, of which the high suitable areas are mainly distributed in southern Guangdong, southwestern Guangxi, western Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Hainan. Under different future climatic conditions, some of the high, medium, and low suitability zones for <jats:italic>T. varians</jats:italic> increased and some decreased, but the mass centre did not migrate significantly. The Pearl River Basin is predicted to remain the main distribution area of <jats:italic>T. varians</jats:italic>.\",\"PeriodicalId\":9370,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Bulletin of Entomological Research\",\"volume\":\"22 1\",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":1.6000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-05-03\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Bulletin of Entomological Research\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"97\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1017/s0007485324000117\",\"RegionNum\":3,\"RegionCategory\":\"农林科学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"ENTOMOLOGY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Bulletin of Entomological Research","FirstCategoryId":"97","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s0007485324000117","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"ENTOMOLOGY","Score":null,"Total":0}
Predicting the current and future suitable distribution range of Trilocha varians (Walker, 1855) (Lepidoptera: Bombycidae) in China
Trilocha varians is one of the major pests of Ficus spp. Based on 19 bioclimatic variables provided by the Worldclim, our study analysed the suitable distribution areas of T. varians under current and future climate changes (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5) for two periods (the 2050s and 2090s) using the maximum entropy algorithm (MaxEnt) model. Key environmental variables affecting the geographic distribution of T. varians were also identified, and the changes in the area of suitable range under current and future climate changes were compared. The results showed that the key environmental variables affecting the distribution of T. varians were temperature and precipitation, comprising annual mean temperature (bio1), temperature seasonality (standard deviation × 100) (bio4), precipitation of driest month (bio14), and precipitation of driest quarter (bio17). Under the current climatic conditions, the suitable distribution area of T. varians is within the range of 92°13′E–122°08′E, 18°17′N–31°55′N. The current high, medium, and low suitable areas for T. varians predicted by the MaxEnt model are 14.00 × 104, 21.50 × 104, and 71.95 × 104 km2, of which the high suitable areas are mainly distributed in southern Guangdong, southwestern Guangxi, western Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Hainan. Under different future climatic conditions, some of the high, medium, and low suitability zones for T. varians increased and some decreased, but the mass centre did not migrate significantly. The Pearl River Basin is predicted to remain the main distribution area of T. varians.
期刊介绍:
Established in 1910, the internationally recognised Bulletin of Entomological Research aims to further global knowledge of entomology through the generalisation of research findings rather than providing more entomological exceptions. The Bulletin publishes high quality and original research papers, ''critiques'' and review articles concerning insects or other arthropods of economic importance in agriculture, forestry, stored products, biological control, medicine, animal health and natural resource management. The scope of papers addresses the biology, ecology, behaviour, physiology and systematics of individuals and populations, with a particular emphasis upon the major current and emerging pests of agriculture, horticulture and forestry, and vectors of human and animal diseases. This includes the interactions between species (plants, hosts for parasites, natural enemies and whole communities), novel methodological developments, including molecular biology, in an applied context. The Bulletin does not publish the results of pesticide testing or traditional taxonomic revisions.