Genomic prediction of resistance to Hymenoscyphus fraxineus in common ash (Fraxinus excelsior L.) populations

The increase in introduced insect pests and pathogens due to anthropogenic environmental changes has become a major concern for tree species worldwide. Common ash (Fraxinus excelsior L.) is one of such species facing a significant threat from the invasive fungal pathogen Hymenoscyphus fraxineus. Some studies have indicated that the susceptibility of ash to the pathogen is genetically determined, providing some hope for accelerated breeding programs that are aimed at increasing the resistance of ash populations. To address this challenge, we used a genomic selection strategy to identify potential genetic markers that are associated with resistance to the pathogen causing ash dieback. Through genome-wide association studies (GWAS) of 300 common ash individuals from 30 populations across Poland (ddRAD, dataset A), we identified six significant SNP loci with a p-value ≤1 × 10⁻⁴ associated with health status. To further evaluate the effectiveness of GWAS markers in predicting health status, we considered two genomic prediction scenarios. Firstly, we conducted cross-validation on dataset A. Secondly, we trained markers on dataset A and tested them on dataset B, which involved whole-genome sequencing of 20 individuals from two populations. Genomic prediction analysis revealed that the top SNPs identified via GWAS exhibited notably higher prediction accuracies compared to randomly selected SNPs, particularly with a larger number of SNPs. Cross-validation analyses using dataset A showcased high genomic prediction accuracy, predicting tree health status with over 90% accuracy across the top SNP sets ranging from 500 to 10,000 SNPs from the GWAS datasets. However, no significant results emerged for health status when the model trained on dataset A was tested on dataset B. Our findings illuminate potential genetic markers associated with resistance to ash dieback, offering support for future breeding programs in Poland aimed at combating ash dieback and bolstering conservation efforts for this invaluable tree species.