MCS-based quantile value approach for reliability-based design of tunnel face support pressure

This paper develops a new approach for reliability-based design (RBD) of tunnel face support pressure from a quantile value perspective. A surrogate model is constructed to calculate the collapse pressures of the random samples generated by a single run of Monte Carlo simulation (MCS). The cumulative distribution function (CDF) of the collapse pressure is then obtained and the support pressure aiming at a target failure probability is chosen as the upper quantile value of the collapse pressures. The proposed approach does not require repetitive reliability analyses compared to the existing methods. Moreover, a direct relationship between the target failure probability and the required support pressure is established. An illustrative example is used to demonstrate the implementation procedure. The accuracy of the reliability-based support pressures is verified by direct MCS incorporating with three-dimensional numerical simulations. Finally, the influencing factors, including the sample size of MCS, the correlation coefficient between random variables, the choice of experimental points, and the surrogate model, are investigated. This method can play a complementary role to available approaches due to its advantages of simplicity and efficiency.