Twenty years of population dynamics in European beech-oak forest at their rear range margin anticipate changes in its structure and composition

There is an increasing interest in restoring degraded forests, which occupy half of the forest areas. Among the forms of restoration, passive restoration, which involves the elimination of degrading factors and the free evolution of natural dynamics by applying minimal or no management, is gaining attention. Natural dynamics is difficult to predict due to the influence of multiple interacting factors such as climatic and edaphic conditions, composition and abundance of species, and the successional character of these species. Here, we study the natural dynamics of a mixed forest located in central Spain, which maintained an open forest structure, due to intensive use, until grazing and cutting were banned in the 1960s. The most frequent woody species in this forest are Fagus sylvatica, Quercus petraea, Quercus pyrenaica, Ilex aquifolium, Sorbus aucuparia, Sorbus aria and Prunus avium, with contrasting shade and drought tolerance. These species are common in temperate European deciduous forest and are found here near their southern distribution limit, except for Q. pyrenaica. In order to analyze forest dynamics and composition, three inventories were carried out in 1994, 2005 and 2015. Our results show that, despite the Mediterranean influence, the natural dynamics of this forest has been mainly determined by different levels of shade tolerance. After the abandonment of grazing and cutting, Q. pyrenaica expanded rapidly due to its lower shade tolerance, whereas after canopy closure and forest densification, shade-tolerant species gained ground, particularly F. sylvatica, despite its lower drought and late-frost tolerance. If the current dynamics continue, F. sylvatica will overtake the rest of the species, which will be relegated to sites with shallow soils and steep slopes. Simultaneously, all the multi-centennial beech trees, which are undergoing a rapid mortality and decline process, will disappear.