{"title":"多发性肌炎/皮肌炎相关间质性肺病患者治疗前死亡风险预测模型","authors":"X. Gui, Wangzhong Li, Hanyi Jiang, Rujia Wang, Min Yu, Tingting Zhao, Miao Ma, Jingjing Ding, Ziyi Jin, Yuying Qiu, Xiaohua Qiu, Yingwei Zhang, Min Cao, Mei Huang, Mengshu Cao, Jinghong Dai, Hourong Cai, Xiaoyan Xin, Yonglong Xiao","doi":"10.1136/rmdopen-2023-003850","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Objectives Risk prediction for patients with polymyositis/dermatomyositis-associated interstitial lung disease (PM/DM-ILD) is challenging due to heterogeneity in the disease course. We aimed to develop a mortality risk prediction model for PM/DM-ILD. Methods This prognostic study analysed patients with PM/DM-ILD admitted to Nanjing Drum Hospital from 2016 to 2021. The primary outcome was mortality within 1 year. We used a least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) logistic regression model to identify predictive laboratory indicators. These indicators were used to create a laboratory risk score, and we developed a mortality risk prediction model by incorporating clinical factors. The evaluation of model performance encompassed discrimination, calibration, clinical utility and practical application for risk prediction and prognosis. Results Overall, 418 patients with PM/DM-ILD were enrolled and randomly divided into development (n=282) and validation (n=136) cohorts. LASSO logistic regression identified four optimal features in the development cohort, forming a laboratory risk score: C reactive protein, lactate dehydrogenase, CD3+CD4+ T cell counts and PO2/FiO2. The final prediction model integrated age, arthralgia, anti-melanoma differentiation-associated gene 5 antibody status, high-resolution CT pattern and the laboratory risk score. The prediction model exhibited robust discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic: 0.869, 95% CI 0.811 to 0.910), excellent calibration and valuable clinical utility. Patients were categorised into three risk groups with distinct mortality rates. The internal validation, sensitivity analyses and comparative assessments against previous models further confirmed the robustness of the prediction model. Conclusions We developed and validated an evidence-based mortality risk prediction model with simple, readily accessible clinical variables in patients with PM/DM-ILD, which may inform clinical decision-making.","PeriodicalId":5,"journal":{"name":"ACS Applied Materials & Interfaces","volume":"101 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.3000,"publicationDate":"2024-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Pretreatment mortality risk prediction model in patients with polymyositis/dermatomyositis-associated interstitial lung disease\",\"authors\":\"X. Gui, Wangzhong Li, Hanyi Jiang, Rujia Wang, Min Yu, Tingting Zhao, Miao Ma, Jingjing Ding, Ziyi Jin, Yuying Qiu, Xiaohua Qiu, Yingwei Zhang, Min Cao, Mei Huang, Mengshu Cao, Jinghong Dai, Hourong Cai, Xiaoyan Xin, Yonglong Xiao\",\"doi\":\"10.1136/rmdopen-2023-003850\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"Objectives Risk prediction for patients with polymyositis/dermatomyositis-associated interstitial lung disease (PM/DM-ILD) is challenging due to heterogeneity in the disease course. We aimed to develop a mortality risk prediction model for PM/DM-ILD. Methods This prognostic study analysed patients with PM/DM-ILD admitted to Nanjing Drum Hospital from 2016 to 2021. The primary outcome was mortality within 1 year. We used a least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) logistic regression model to identify predictive laboratory indicators. These indicators were used to create a laboratory risk score, and we developed a mortality risk prediction model by incorporating clinical factors. The evaluation of model performance encompassed discrimination, calibration, clinical utility and practical application for risk prediction and prognosis. Results Overall, 418 patients with PM/DM-ILD were enrolled and randomly divided into development (n=282) and validation (n=136) cohorts. LASSO logistic regression identified four optimal features in the development cohort, forming a laboratory risk score: C reactive protein, lactate dehydrogenase, CD3+CD4+ T cell counts and PO2/FiO2. The final prediction model integrated age, arthralgia, anti-melanoma differentiation-associated gene 5 antibody status, high-resolution CT pattern and the laboratory risk score. The prediction model exhibited robust discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic: 0.869, 95% CI 0.811 to 0.910), excellent calibration and valuable clinical utility. Patients were categorised into three risk groups with distinct mortality rates. The internal validation, sensitivity analyses and comparative assessments against previous models further confirmed the robustness of the prediction model. Conclusions We developed and validated an evidence-based mortality risk prediction model with simple, readily accessible clinical variables in patients with PM/DM-ILD, which may inform clinical decision-making.\",\"PeriodicalId\":5,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"ACS Applied Materials & Interfaces\",\"volume\":\"101 3\",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":8.3000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-04-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"ACS Applied Materials & Interfaces\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"3\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1136/rmdopen-2023-003850\",\"RegionNum\":2,\"RegionCategory\":\"材料科学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"MATERIALS SCIENCE, MULTIDISCIPLINARY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"ACS Applied Materials & Interfaces","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1136/rmdopen-2023-003850","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"材料科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"MATERIALS SCIENCE, MULTIDISCIPLINARY","Score":null,"Total":0}
Pretreatment mortality risk prediction model in patients with polymyositis/dermatomyositis-associated interstitial lung disease
Objectives Risk prediction for patients with polymyositis/dermatomyositis-associated interstitial lung disease (PM/DM-ILD) is challenging due to heterogeneity in the disease course. We aimed to develop a mortality risk prediction model for PM/DM-ILD. Methods This prognostic study analysed patients with PM/DM-ILD admitted to Nanjing Drum Hospital from 2016 to 2021. The primary outcome was mortality within 1 year. We used a least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) logistic regression model to identify predictive laboratory indicators. These indicators were used to create a laboratory risk score, and we developed a mortality risk prediction model by incorporating clinical factors. The evaluation of model performance encompassed discrimination, calibration, clinical utility and practical application for risk prediction and prognosis. Results Overall, 418 patients with PM/DM-ILD were enrolled and randomly divided into development (n=282) and validation (n=136) cohorts. LASSO logistic regression identified four optimal features in the development cohort, forming a laboratory risk score: C reactive protein, lactate dehydrogenase, CD3+CD4+ T cell counts and PO2/FiO2. The final prediction model integrated age, arthralgia, anti-melanoma differentiation-associated gene 5 antibody status, high-resolution CT pattern and the laboratory risk score. The prediction model exhibited robust discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic: 0.869, 95% CI 0.811 to 0.910), excellent calibration and valuable clinical utility. Patients were categorised into three risk groups with distinct mortality rates. The internal validation, sensitivity analyses and comparative assessments against previous models further confirmed the robustness of the prediction model. Conclusions We developed and validated an evidence-based mortality risk prediction model with simple, readily accessible clinical variables in patients with PM/DM-ILD, which may inform clinical decision-making.
期刊介绍:
ACS Applied Materials & Interfaces is a leading interdisciplinary journal that brings together chemists, engineers, physicists, and biologists to explore the development and utilization of newly-discovered materials and interfacial processes for specific applications. Our journal has experienced remarkable growth since its establishment in 2009, both in terms of the number of articles published and the impact of the research showcased. We are proud to foster a truly global community, with the majority of published articles originating from outside the United States, reflecting the rapid growth of applied research worldwide.