Natalia Barbour , Mohamed Abdel-Aty , Samgyu Yang , Fred Mannering
{"title":"车辆/行人交叉路口碰撞造成的行人受伤严重程度:评估 COVID 导致的时间变化","authors":"Natalia Barbour , Mohamed Abdel-Aty , Samgyu Yang , Fred Mannering","doi":"10.1016/j.amar.2024.100334","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Pedestrian mobility has become an increasingly important concern in transportation system analysis because of its positive impacts on the environment and healthy lifestyles. However, pedestrian safety in a vehicle-dominated transportation network remains a concern and potential barrier to pedestrian mobility, with pedestrian intersection safety being of particular concern. In addition, it is important to understand how pedestrian safety has been affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, perhaps permanently shifting pedestrian injury risks. This research seeks to provide insight into how pedestrian injury risks at intersections have changed as a result of the pandemic by estimating a series pedestrian injury severity models. To do so, unconstrained and partially constrained random parameters multinomial logit models with heterogeneity in the means of random parameters were estimated. Using Florida data, two one-year periods (one year before and one year after the COVID-19 pandemic) were defined based on vehicle miles traveled. The sample includes 3,780 single pedestrian-single vehicle crashes (2,348 from daytime and 1,432 from nighttime). A broad range of variables was considered to assess how the parameters may have shifted between the before and after periods. A series of likelihood ratio tests were conducted to examine the stability of model parameter estimates across the predefined time periods as well as to determine the differences between the daytime and nighttime crash injury severity outcomes. The results show that the nighttime crashes experienced more temporal shifts relative to daytime crashes. The findings also showed that both pedestrian and driver behavior played key temporally-shifting roles before and after the COVID-19 pandemic period. Finally, the out-of-sample simulations suggest that pedestrian injuries have become more severe after the pandemic.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47520,"journal":{"name":"Analytic Methods in Accident Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":12.5000,"publicationDate":"2024-04-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Pedestrian injury severities resulting from vehicle/pedestrian intersection crashes: An assessment of COVID-contributing temporal shifts\",\"authors\":\"Natalia Barbour , Mohamed Abdel-Aty , Samgyu Yang , Fred Mannering\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.amar.2024.100334\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><p>Pedestrian mobility has become an increasingly important concern in transportation system analysis because of its positive impacts on the environment and healthy lifestyles. However, pedestrian safety in a vehicle-dominated transportation network remains a concern and potential barrier to pedestrian mobility, with pedestrian intersection safety being of particular concern. In addition, it is important to understand how pedestrian safety has been affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, perhaps permanently shifting pedestrian injury risks. This research seeks to provide insight into how pedestrian injury risks at intersections have changed as a result of the pandemic by estimating a series pedestrian injury severity models. To do so, unconstrained and partially constrained random parameters multinomial logit models with heterogeneity in the means of random parameters were estimated. Using Florida data, two one-year periods (one year before and one year after the COVID-19 pandemic) were defined based on vehicle miles traveled. The sample includes 3,780 single pedestrian-single vehicle crashes (2,348 from daytime and 1,432 from nighttime). A broad range of variables was considered to assess how the parameters may have shifted between the before and after periods. A series of likelihood ratio tests were conducted to examine the stability of model parameter estimates across the predefined time periods as well as to determine the differences between the daytime and nighttime crash injury severity outcomes. The results show that the nighttime crashes experienced more temporal shifts relative to daytime crashes. The findings also showed that both pedestrian and driver behavior played key temporally-shifting roles before and after the COVID-19 pandemic period. Finally, the out-of-sample simulations suggest that pedestrian injuries have become more severe after the pandemic.</p></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":47520,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Analytic Methods in Accident Research\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":12.5000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-04-25\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Analytic Methods in Accident Research\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"5\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2213665724000186\",\"RegionNum\":1,\"RegionCategory\":\"工程技术\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Analytic Methods in Accident Research","FirstCategoryId":"5","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2213665724000186","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH","Score":null,"Total":0}
Pedestrian injury severities resulting from vehicle/pedestrian intersection crashes: An assessment of COVID-contributing temporal shifts
Pedestrian mobility has become an increasingly important concern in transportation system analysis because of its positive impacts on the environment and healthy lifestyles. However, pedestrian safety in a vehicle-dominated transportation network remains a concern and potential barrier to pedestrian mobility, with pedestrian intersection safety being of particular concern. In addition, it is important to understand how pedestrian safety has been affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, perhaps permanently shifting pedestrian injury risks. This research seeks to provide insight into how pedestrian injury risks at intersections have changed as a result of the pandemic by estimating a series pedestrian injury severity models. To do so, unconstrained and partially constrained random parameters multinomial logit models with heterogeneity in the means of random parameters were estimated. Using Florida data, two one-year periods (one year before and one year after the COVID-19 pandemic) were defined based on vehicle miles traveled. The sample includes 3,780 single pedestrian-single vehicle crashes (2,348 from daytime and 1,432 from nighttime). A broad range of variables was considered to assess how the parameters may have shifted between the before and after periods. A series of likelihood ratio tests were conducted to examine the stability of model parameter estimates across the predefined time periods as well as to determine the differences between the daytime and nighttime crash injury severity outcomes. The results show that the nighttime crashes experienced more temporal shifts relative to daytime crashes. The findings also showed that both pedestrian and driver behavior played key temporally-shifting roles before and after the COVID-19 pandemic period. Finally, the out-of-sample simulations suggest that pedestrian injuries have become more severe after the pandemic.
期刊介绍:
Analytic Methods in Accident Research is a journal that publishes articles related to the development and application of advanced statistical and econometric methods in studying vehicle crashes and other accidents. The journal aims to demonstrate how these innovative approaches can provide new insights into the factors influencing the occurrence and severity of accidents, thereby offering guidance for implementing appropriate preventive measures. While the journal primarily focuses on the analytic approach, it also accepts articles covering various aspects of transportation safety (such as road, pedestrian, air, rail, and water safety), construction safety, and other areas where human behavior, machine failures, or system failures lead to property damage or bodily harm.