车辆/行人交叉路口碰撞造成的行人受伤严重程度:评估 COVID 导致的时间变化

IF 12.5 1区 工程技术 Q1 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH
Natalia Barbour , Mohamed Abdel-Aty , Samgyu Yang , Fred Mannering
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引用次数: 0

摘要

由于行人流动性对环境和健康生活方式的积极影响,行人流动性已成为交通系统分析中一个日益重要的关注点。然而,在以车辆为主的交通网络中,行人安全仍然是一个令人担忧的问题,也是行人流动性的潜在障碍,其中行人交叉口的安全尤其令人担忧。此外,了解 COVID-19 大流行对行人安全的影响也很重要,这可能会永久性地改变行人受伤的风险。本研究试图通过估算一系列行人伤害严重程度模型,深入了解大流行如何改变了交叉路口的行人伤害风险。为此,对随机参数均值异质性的无约束和部分约束随机参数多叉 logit 模型进行了估计。利用佛罗里达州的数据,根据车辆行驶里程定义了两个一年期(COVID-19 大流行之前一年和之后一年)。样本包括 3,780 起单人单车碰撞事故(其中 2,348 起发生在白天,1,432 起发生在夜间)。我们考虑了一系列变量,以评估前后两个时期的参数变化情况。我们进行了一系列似然比检验,以检查模型参数估计值在预定义时间段内的稳定性,并确定白天和夜间碰撞伤害严重程度结果之间的差异。结果表明,相对于白天的撞车事故,夜间撞车事故经历了更多的时间变化。研究结果还表明,在 COVID-19 大流行前后,行人和驾驶员行为都起到了关键的时间转换作用。最后,样本外模拟结果表明,大流行过后,行人受伤的情况变得更加严重。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Pedestrian injury severities resulting from vehicle/pedestrian intersection crashes: An assessment of COVID-contributing temporal shifts

Pedestrian mobility has become an increasingly important concern in transportation system analysis because of its positive impacts on the environment and healthy lifestyles. However, pedestrian safety in a vehicle-dominated transportation network remains a concern and potential barrier to pedestrian mobility, with pedestrian intersection safety being of particular concern. In addition, it is important to understand how pedestrian safety has been affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, perhaps permanently shifting pedestrian injury risks. This research seeks to provide insight into how pedestrian injury risks at intersections have changed as a result of the pandemic by estimating a series pedestrian injury severity models. To do so, unconstrained and partially constrained random parameters multinomial logit models with heterogeneity in the means of random parameters were estimated. Using Florida data, two one-year periods (one year before and one year after the COVID-19 pandemic) were defined based on vehicle miles traveled. The sample includes 3,780 single pedestrian-single vehicle crashes (2,348 from daytime and 1,432 from nighttime). A broad range of variables was considered to assess how the parameters may have shifted between the before and after periods. A series of likelihood ratio tests were conducted to examine the stability of model parameter estimates across the predefined time periods as well as to determine the differences between the daytime and nighttime crash injury severity outcomes. The results show that the nighttime crashes experienced more temporal shifts relative to daytime crashes. The findings also showed that both pedestrian and driver behavior played key temporally-shifting roles before and after the COVID-19 pandemic period. Finally, the out-of-sample simulations suggest that pedestrian injuries have become more severe after the pandemic.

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来源期刊
CiteScore
22.10
自引率
34.10%
发文量
35
审稿时长
24 days
期刊介绍: Analytic Methods in Accident Research is a journal that publishes articles related to the development and application of advanced statistical and econometric methods in studying vehicle crashes and other accidents. The journal aims to demonstrate how these innovative approaches can provide new insights into the factors influencing the occurrence and severity of accidents, thereby offering guidance for implementing appropriate preventive measures. While the journal primarily focuses on the analytic approach, it also accepts articles covering various aspects of transportation safety (such as road, pedestrian, air, rail, and water safety), construction safety, and other areas where human behavior, machine failures, or system failures lead to property damage or bodily harm.
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