Comparative analysis of CO2 emissions and economic performance in the United States and China: Navigating sustainable development in the climate change era

Economic growth has brought a global climate change into the spotlight, and CO₂ emissions demonstrate significant challenges in reducing environmental shifts worldwide. Globally, the United States and China contribute the largest amount of CO₂ emissions. The purpose of this study is to examine the relationship between different types of CO₂ emissions and economic growth by using a modeling approach. We analyze total CO₂ emissions, coal CO₂ emissions, oil CO₂ emissions, the global share of coal CO₂ emissions, the global share of oil CO₂ emissions, and economic growth. This study provides unique insights into how to simultaneously reduce CO₂ emissions and sustain economic growth. A bootstrap autoregressive distributed lag (BARDL) simulation method is utilized to examine the long- and short-run effects of predictors on CO₂ emissions. Coal CO₂ emissions are found to have a significant positive effect on economic growth in the short run but a negative impact on economic growth over the long run in the United States. The United States needs to implement stronger measures to balance coal CO₂ emissions with economic growth for sustainable development. In contrast, oil CO₂ emissions have positive effect for China in both the long run and short run. Thus, China can continue to reduce CO₂ emissions from oil while maintaining positive economic growth. The China's policies promoting cleaner energy alternatives can be adapted and implemented to maintain a balance between economic growth and carbon reduction. The study has valuable insights for policymakers seeking to balance economic growth with carbon reduction strategies. It emphasizes the need to better understand the complex relationship between CO₂ emissions and economic growth.