寻找收入、增长和民主之间关系的主要因果方向

IF 2.3 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS
Martin Paldam
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引用次数: 0

摘要

各国政治制度的发展并不稳定,但从收入、经济增长和主要民主指数的跨国数据来看,长期来看与经济有着密切的关系。有两种主要理论可以解释这些关系:(α)从收入与民主之间的强相关性出发,将收入视为因果变量。这是民主转型,是大转型理论的政治部分。(β) 从民主与经济增长之间弱得多的相关性出发,将民主视为因果变量。这是制度至上理论的一部分,其中政治制度是关键制度。讨论需要(λ)经济增长与收入之间的联系。它将 (α) 和 (β) 理论联系起来,使其中一个理论可以解释另一个理论。该分析使用核回归对一个大型统一数据集进行分析,考察了三个变量之间所有六种可能的单变量关系。这种方法给出了一幅清晰的图景。强 α 相关性确实可以解释弱 β 相关性的虚假性,但弱 β 相关性预示着 α 相关性非常弱。因此,(α)包含(β),反之亦然。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Income, growth, and democracy looking for the main causal directions in the nexus

The development of the political system of countries is noisy, but in the longer run a strong relation to the economy emerges in the cross-country data for income, growth, and the main democracy indices. Two main theories explain these relations: (α) starts from the strong correlation between income and democracy, seeing income as the causal variable. It is the democratic transition, which is the political part of the theory of the grand transition. (β) starts from the much weaker correlation between democracy and economic growth, seeing democracy as the causal variable. This is a part of the primacy-of-institutions theory, where the political system is a key institution. The discussion needs (λ) a link-relation between growth and income. It connects the (α) and (β) theories, so that one may explain the other. The analysis looks at all six possible univariate relations between the three variables using kernel regressions on a large, unified data set. This method gives a clear picture. The strong α-relation can indeed explain the weak β-relation as spurious, but the weak β-relation predicts that the α-relation is very weak. Thus, (α) encompasses (β), but not vice versa.

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来源期刊
CiteScore
3.40
自引率
10.00%
发文量
106
期刊介绍: The aim of the European Journal of Political Economy is to disseminate original theoretical and empirical research on economic phenomena within a scope that encompasses collective decision making, political behavior, and the role of institutions. Contributions are invited from the international community of researchers. Manuscripts must be published in English. Starting 2008, the European Journal of Political Economy is indexed in the Social Sciences Citation Index published by Thomson Scientific (formerly ISI).
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