利用基于 CMIP6 模型的 IHACRES 模型研究气候变化对伊朗德兹盆地河水流量的影响

IF 4.6 Q2 MATERIALS SCIENCE, BIOMATERIALS

ACS Applied Bio Materials Pub Date : 2024-04-05 DOI:10.2166/wcc.2024.571

M. Goodarzi, M. J. Abedi, Majid Niazkar

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引用次数: 0

摘要

了解河流流量的变化是设计水力结构和管理流域地表水资源的重要前提。通过使用 LARS-WG 统计降尺度模型，在 SSP5.8.5 和 SSP2.4.5 发布情景下，第六次报告的总环流模型（包括 ACCESS-ESM1 和 BCC-CSM-MR 模型）的输出结果。获得了研究区域 2015-2043 年期间更精确的空间尺度和日降水量及温度时间序列。然后在研究区域校核了 IHACRES 降水-径流模型。根据校准和验证阶段的拟合统计，所开发模型的整体性能被评为令人满意。校准后的水文模型由降雨数据和降低的气温驱动，以预测气候变化对研究流域输出的影响。研究表明，所研究流域的降雨量较多（在 ACCESS-ESM1 模型中平均为 20.8%，在 BCC-CSM2-MR 模型中平均为 33.2%）。与基期相比，ACCESS-ESM1 模型中的主要河流流量将减少 15%，而 BCC-CSM2-MR 模型中的主要河流流量将增加 16%。

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Effects of climate change on streamflow in the Dez Basin of Iran using the IHACRES model based on the CMIP6 model

Understanding the changes in river flow is an important prerequisite for designing hydraulic structures as well as managing surface water resources in basins. By using the LARS-WG statistical downscaling model, the outputs of the general circulation model of the sixth report, including the ACCESS-ESM1 and BCC-CSM-MR models, under the SSP5.8.5 and SSP2.4.5 release scenarios. A more accurate spatial scale and daily precipitation and temperature time series were obtained for the studied area during the period of 2015–2043. Then the IHACRES rainfall-runoff model was calibrated in the study area. Based on the fit statistics in the calibration and validation stages, the overall performance of the developed model was evaluated as satisfactory. The calibrated hydrological model was driven by rainfall data and reduced air temperature to predict the effect of climate change on the output of the studied basin. The study showed that the studied basin has more rainfall (on average, 20.8% in the ACCESS-ESM1 model and 33.2% in the BCC-CSM2-MR model). The flow rate of the main river in the ACCESS-ESM1 model will decrease by 15% compared to the base period, and in the BCC-CSM2-MR model, it will increase by 16% compared to the base period.

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来源期刊

ACS Applied Bio Materials Chemistry-Chemistry (all)

CiteScore

9.40

自引率

2.10%

发文量

464

期刊介绍： ACS Applied Bio Materials is an interdisciplinary journal publishing original research covering all aspects of biomaterials and biointerfaces including and beyond the traditional biosensing, biomedical and therapeutic applications. The journal is devoted to reports of new and original experimental and theoretical research of an applied nature that integrates knowledge in the areas of materials, engineering, physics, bioscience, and chemistry into important bio applications. The journal is specifically interested in work that addresses the relationship between structure and function and assesses the stability and degradation of materials under relevant environmental and biological conditions.