浙江沿海水域船舶碰撞的贝叶斯网络模型及因果分析

IF 0.7 Q4 TRANSPORTATION SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY
Yanfei Tian, Hui Qiao, Lin Hua, Wanzheng Ai
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引用次数: 0

摘要

为提前采取应对措施,防范事故风险,探究船舶碰撞事故的成因和演化机理具有重要意义。本文收集了浙江沿海海域发生的 70 起船舶碰撞事故,其中 60 起用于建模,10 起用于验证(测试)。通过分析事故的影响因素(IFs)和因果链,构建了一个有 19 个因果节点和 1 个后果节点的贝叶斯网络(BN)模型。BN 模型的参数,即条件概率表(CPT),是通过数理统计方法和贝叶斯公式确定的。在每个测试案例中,BN 模型对发生概率的预测都高于 80%(接近 100%表示一定会发生),这验证了模型的可用性。基于反向推理过程的因果分析表明,H(人为失误)是导致船舶碰撞的主要 IF。事故发生可能性最大的因果链为:H1(瞭望不当)→H4(低估碰撞)→H7(未采取有效的避碰措施)→H(人为失误)→C(船舶碰撞)。通过实施敏感性分析过程,找到了船舶碰撞的关键 IFs,并将其排序为H9(应急处理不当)、H7(未采取有效避碰措施)、H6(未使用安全航速)、H4(对碰撞估计不足)、H1(瞭望不当)、H3(非标准值班)、H8(未履行 "让路 "责任)、H5(未发现目标船)、H2(船员不称职)。其中,H9(应急处理不当)和 H7(未采取有效的避碰措施)对碰撞事故的敏感度相对较高,影响较大。研究结果表明,BN 模型可用于分析浙江沿海水域船舶碰撞事故的成因,预测事故发生的概率。该研究将为探索事故原因、揭示事故演化机理、采取有针对性的风险控制措施预防未来事故的发生提供理论和实践支持。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Bayesian Network Model and Causal Analysis of Ship Collisions in Zhejiang Coastal Waters
For taking counter measures in advance to prevent accidental risks, it is of significance to explore the causes and evolutionary mechanism of ship collisions. This article collects 70 ship collision accidents in Zhejiang coastal waters, where 60 cases are used for modeling while 10 cases are used for verification (testing). By analyzing influencing factors (IFs) and causal chains of accidents, a Bayesian network (BN) model with 19 causal nodes and 1 consequential node is constructed. Parameters of the BN model, namely the conditional probability tables (CPTs), are determined by mathematical statistics methods and Bayesian formulas. Regarding each testing case, the BN model’s prediction on probability of occurrence is above 80% (approaching 100% indicates the certainty of occurrence), which verifies the availability of the model. Causal analysis based on the backward reasoning process shows that H (Human error) is the main IF resulting in ship collisions. The causal chain that maximizes the likelihood of an accident occurring is: H1 (improper lookout) → H4 (underestimation of collision) → H7 (failure of taking effective collision-avoidance measures) → H (human error) → C (ship collision). By implementing sensitivity analysis process, key IFs of ship collisions are found and are ranked as: H9 (improper emergency handling), H7 (failure of taking effective collision-avoidance measures), H6 (without using safe speed), H4 (underestimation of collision), H1 (improper lookout), H3 (nonstandard duty), H8 (failure of fulfilling “giving way” responsibility), H5 (unaware of target ships), and H2 (crew incompetence). Among them, H9 (improper emergency handling) and H7 (failure to take effective collision-avoidance measures) have relatively high sensitivity and greater impact on collision accidents. Results show that the BN model can be used to analyze the causes of ship collisions in Zhejiang coastal waters and to predict the probability of occurrence of accidents. The research will provide theoretical and practical support for exploring the causes and revealing the evolutionary mechanism of accidents, and for taking targeted risk control measures to prevent future accidents.
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来源期刊
SAE International Journal of Transportation Safety
SAE International Journal of Transportation Safety TRANSPORTATION SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY-
CiteScore
1.10
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发文量
21
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