{"title":"商品价格与马来西亚经济增长之间的共同作用","authors":"Saizal Pinjaman, S. Taasim, Wo Yun, Jain Yassin","doi":"10.15408/etk.v23i1.34368","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"AbstractResearch Originality: This research is an initial attempt to unveil the structure of the dynamic relationship between commodity prices and the economic growth of Malaysia at various frequencies and moments in time.Research Objectives: This paper investigates the co-movement and lead-lag relationship between commodity prices and the economic growth of Malaysia at different frequencies and moments in time. Research Methods: The relationship between the variables is studied based on monthly data from 2015 to 2022 using the time-frequency analysis of Continuous Wavelet Transformation model. This method analyses the direction and lead-lag relationship between two time series to determine which variables are leading and the direction of their co-movement. Empirical Result: The relationships between commodity prices and economic growth are varied depending on frequency and moments in time. In the short run, most commodity prices exhibit an inverse relationship led by economic growth. Meanwhile, a positive co-movement with economic growth is indicated for most commodity prices in the medium run. These variables mostly move in unison, except for rubber and palm oil, which led the relationship. Nevertheless, the co-movement of commodity prices and economic growth showed a diminishing magnitude in the long run.Implications: Malaysia's policy frameworks should consider the economic dynamic responses towards commodity prices in facilitating its economic growth. In addition, efforts should be made to diversify economic activities, reducing the level of dependence on commodities in the country’s trade basket.JEL Classification: Q32, O44, O11How to Cite:Pinjaman, S., Taasim, S.I., Yun, W.S., & Yassin, J. (202x). The Co-Movement Between Commodity Prices and the Economic Growth of Malaysia. Etikonomi, 23(1), 11 – 26. https://doi.org/10.15408/etk.v23i1.34368.","PeriodicalId":41552,"journal":{"name":"Etikonomi","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.0000,"publicationDate":"2024-04-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"The Co-Movement Between Commodity Prices and the Economic Growth of Malaysia\",\"authors\":\"Saizal Pinjaman, S. 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Empirical Result: The relationships between commodity prices and economic growth are varied depending on frequency and moments in time. In the short run, most commodity prices exhibit an inverse relationship led by economic growth. Meanwhile, a positive co-movement with economic growth is indicated for most commodity prices in the medium run. These variables mostly move in unison, except for rubber and palm oil, which led the relationship. Nevertheless, the co-movement of commodity prices and economic growth showed a diminishing magnitude in the long run.Implications: Malaysia's policy frameworks should consider the economic dynamic responses towards commodity prices in facilitating its economic growth. In addition, efforts should be made to diversify economic activities, reducing the level of dependence on commodities in the country’s trade basket.JEL Classification: Q32, O44, O11How to Cite:Pinjaman, S., Taasim, S.I., Yun, W.S., & Yassin, J. (202x). The Co-Movement Between Commodity Prices and the Economic Growth of Malaysia. 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引用次数: 0
摘要
摘要 研究独创性:本研究初步尝试揭示商品价格与马来西亚经济增长之间在不同频率和时间时刻的动态关系结构:本文研究了马来西亚商品价格与经济增长在不同频率和时刻的共动和滞后关系。研究方法:基于2015年至2022年的月度数据,采用连续小波变换模型的时频分析方法研究变量之间的关系。这种方法分析两个时间序列之间的方向和领先-滞后关系,以确定哪些变量是领先的,以及它们共同运动的方向。实证结果:商品价格与经济增长之间的关系因频率和时间时刻的不同而各异。在短期内,大多数商品价格在经济增长的引导下呈现反向关系。同时,从中期来看,大多数商品价格与经济增长呈正相关关系。除了橡胶和棕榈油的走势领先于经济增长之外,其他变量的走势大多是一致的。然而,从长期来看,商品价格与经济增长的共同变动幅度越来越小:马来西亚的政策框架应考虑经济对商品价格的动态反应,以促进其经济增长。此外,应努力实现经济活动的多样化,降低该国贸易篮子对商品的依赖程度:Q32、O44、O11How to Cite:Pinjaman, S.、Taasim, S.I.、Yun, W.S. & Yassin, J. (202x)。商品价格与马来西亚经济增长之间的共同变动。Etikonomi, 23(1), 11 - 26. https://doi.org/10.15408/etk.v23i1.34368.
The Co-Movement Between Commodity Prices and the Economic Growth of Malaysia
AbstractResearch Originality: This research is an initial attempt to unveil the structure of the dynamic relationship between commodity prices and the economic growth of Malaysia at various frequencies and moments in time.Research Objectives: This paper investigates the co-movement and lead-lag relationship between commodity prices and the economic growth of Malaysia at different frequencies and moments in time. Research Methods: The relationship between the variables is studied based on monthly data from 2015 to 2022 using the time-frequency analysis of Continuous Wavelet Transformation model. This method analyses the direction and lead-lag relationship between two time series to determine which variables are leading and the direction of their co-movement. Empirical Result: The relationships between commodity prices and economic growth are varied depending on frequency and moments in time. In the short run, most commodity prices exhibit an inverse relationship led by economic growth. Meanwhile, a positive co-movement with economic growth is indicated for most commodity prices in the medium run. These variables mostly move in unison, except for rubber and palm oil, which led the relationship. Nevertheless, the co-movement of commodity prices and economic growth showed a diminishing magnitude in the long run.Implications: Malaysia's policy frameworks should consider the economic dynamic responses towards commodity prices in facilitating its economic growth. In addition, efforts should be made to diversify economic activities, reducing the level of dependence on commodities in the country’s trade basket.JEL Classification: Q32, O44, O11How to Cite:Pinjaman, S., Taasim, S.I., Yun, W.S., & Yassin, J. (202x). The Co-Movement Between Commodity Prices and the Economic Growth of Malaysia. Etikonomi, 23(1), 11 – 26. https://doi.org/10.15408/etk.v23i1.34368.