WRF 模型分辨率对解决东非降雨量随地形变化的影响

IF 3.3 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
A. Mwanthi, J. Mutemi, F. Opijah, Francis M. Mutua, Z. Atheru, G. Artan
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引用次数: 0

摘要

东非地区地形复杂,海拔梯度大,有内陆水体,土地用途改变,因此中尺度系统非常突出,因此越来越需要提高极端天气预报的准确性,以用于救生和支持各社会经济部门。本研究试图调查天气研究和预报(WRF)模型空间分辨率对利用 12 千米和 2.4 千米分辨率嵌套域解决降雨量变化与地形的影响。该模型由美国国家环境预报中心(NCEP)-全球数据同化系统(GDAS)全球预报系统(GFS)最终(FNL)再分析驱动,模拟了 2018 年 4 月 3 日至 2018 年 4 月 30 日东非上空的天气模式,并根据几个免费提供的网格天气数据集以及肯尼亚气象局(KMD)站点的降雨数据进行了评估。参考数据集和模型输出结果显示,与周围低地相比,高地的降雨事件更多,最大日降雨强度更高,这归因于地貌抬升增强了对流。在粗分辨率和精细分辨率下,从海拔 500 米到 1,100 米的降雨量与海拔高度成反比。允许对流的设置在三个方面更具优势:解决海拔 3000 米以上高度的高度-降雨量反比关系,模拟低地的强降雨事件,以及解决低空风的昼夜周期。虽然粗分辨率设置合理地模拟了大山上空的降雨,但只有允许对流的配置才能准确地解析对比强烈的地形特征上的降雨变化。研究指出,高分辨率建模系统和对地形敏感的偏差校正技术对于提高东非业务天气预报的质量至关重要。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Implications of WRF model resolutions on resolving rainfall variability with topography over East Africa
There is an increasing need to improve the accuracy of extreme weather forecasts for life-saving applications and in support of various socioeconomic sectors in East Africa, a region with remarkable mesoscale systems due to its complex topography defined by sharp gradients in elevation, inland water bodies, and landuse conversions. This study sought to investigate the impacts of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model spatial resolution on resolving rainfall variability with topography utilizing nested domains at 12 and 2.4 km resolutions. The model was driven by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)-Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS) Global Forecast System (GFS) final (FNL) reanalysis to simulate the weather patterns over East Africa from 3rd April 2018 to 30th April 2018, which were evaluated against several freely available gridded weather datasets alongside rainfall data from the Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) stations. The reference datasets and the model outputs revealed that the highlands had more rainfall events and higher maximum daily rainfall intensity compared to the surrounding lowlands, attributed to orographic lifting enhancing convection. Rainfall was inversely proportional to altitude from 500 m to 1,100 m above sea level (ASL) for both coarse and fine resolutions. The convection-permitting setup was superior in three aspects: resolving the inverse altitude-rainfall relationship for altitudes beyond 3000 m ASL, simulating heavy rainfall events over the lowlands, and resolution of the diurnal cycle of low-level wind. Although the coarse resolution setup reasonably simulated rainfall over large mountains, only the convection-permitting configuration could accurately resolve rainfall variability over contrasting topographical features. The study notes that high-resolution modeling systems and topography-sensitive bias correction techniques are critical for improving the quality of operational weather forecasts in East Africa.
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来源期刊
Frontiers in Climate
Frontiers in Climate Environmental Science-Environmental Science (miscellaneous)
CiteScore
4.50
自引率
0.00%
发文量
233
审稿时长
15 weeks
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