Predictive Modeling of Factors Influencing Adherence to SGLT-2 Inhibitors in Ambulatory Care: Insights from Prescription Claims Data Analysis.

Sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors (SGLT2i) are novel oral anti-hyperglycemic drugs that demonstrate cardiovascular and metabolic benefits for patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D), heart failure (HF), and chronic kidney disease (CKD). There is limited knowledge of real-world data to predict adherence to SGLT-2i in an ambulatory setting. The study aims to predict SGLT-2i adherence in patients with T2D and/or HF and/or CKD by building a prediction model using electronic prescription claims data presented within EPIC datasets. This is a retrospective study of 174 adult patients prescribed SGLT-2i at UC San Diego Health ambulatory pharmacies between 1 January 2020 to 30 April 2021. Adherence was measured by the proportion of days covered (PDC). R packages were used to identify regression and non-linear regression predictive models to predict adherence. Age, gender, race/ethnicity, hemoglobin A1c, and insurance plan were included in the model. Diabetes control based on hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) and the glomerular filtration rate (GFR) was also evaluated using Welch t-test with a p-value of 0.05. The best predictive model for measuring adherence was the simple decision tree. It had the highest area under the curve (AUC) of 74% and accuracy of 82%. The model accounted for 21 variables with the main node predictors, including glycated hemoglobin, age, gender, and insurance plan payment amount. The adherence rate was inversely proportional to HbA1c and directly proportional to the plan payment amount. As for secondary outcomes, HbA1c values from baseline till 90 days post-treatment duration were consistently higher in the non-compliant group: 7.4% vs. 9.6%, p < 0.001 for the PDC ≥ 0.80 and PDC < 0.80, respectively. Baseline eGFR was 55.18 mL/min/1.73m2 vs. 54.23 mL/min/m2 at 90 days. The mean eGFR at the end of the study (minimum of 90 days of treatment) was statistically different between the groups: 53.1 vs. 59.6 mL/min/1.73 m2, p < 0.001 for the PDC ≥ 0.80 and PDC < 0.80, respectively. Adherence predictive models will help clinicians to tailor regimens based on non-adherence risk scores.