东盟股指波动溢出分析(案例研究:印度尼西亚、新加坡、马来西亚)

Kirana Fara Labitta, Dwi Susanti, Sukono Sukono
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引用次数: 0

摘要

每个国家都有自己的收入,包括印度尼西亚、新加坡和马来西亚等东盟国家。国民收入的一个来源是股票,可以用股票指数来衡量。每个国家的收入相互依存,并可能受到 Covid-19 大流行病等现象的影响。Covid-19 大流行病也会导致波动溢出。本研究旨在通过研究非对称波动的影响,分析东盟国家(印度尼西亚、新加坡和马来西亚)在 Covid-19 之前和期间的波动溢出效应。本研究使用指数广义自回归条件异方差(EGARCH)模型进行波动溢出检验,首先创建一个时间序列模型,然后对该模型的残差进行建模,然后找出非对称波动效应的估计参数结果。研究结果表明,在 Covid-19 之前的时期,印度尼西亚和马来西亚存在波动溢出效应。然后,在 Covid-19 期间,印度尼西亚和马来西亚、印度尼西亚和新加坡以及新加坡和马来西亚都存在波动溢出效应。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Analysis Volatility Spillover of Stock Index in ASEAN (Case Study: Indonesia, Singapore, Malaysia)
Every country has its own income, including ASEAN countries such as Indonesia, Singapore, and Malaysia. One source of national income can come from stocks, which can be measured by the stock index. The income of each country depends on each other and can be influenced by a phenomenon, such as the Covid-19 pandemic. The Covid-19 pandemic can also cause volatility spillover. This research aims to analyze volatility spillover in ASEAN countries (Indonesia, Singapore, and Malaysia) before and during Covid-19 by looking at the effects of asymmetric volatility. Volatility spillover testing in this study uses the Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (EGARCH) model, starting with creating a time series model and then modeling the residuals from that model, then finding the estimated parameter results of asymmetric volatility effects. The results of this study indicate that during the period before Covid-19, there is volatility spillover for Indonesia and Malaysia. Then, during the Covid-19 period, there is volatility spillover for Indonesia and Malaysia, for Indonesia and Singapore, and for Singapore and Malaysia.
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