Differences in germination traits of time-separated seed collections of dry forest species from Central Zambia and the potential role of climate

Time-separated seed collections with a separation period of 12–18 years were used to study recent changes in germination traits and the role of climate factors in seven tropical dry forest (TDF) woody species in Zambia, southern Africa. In all the species, peak and final germination were lower in recent (2016–2021) seed collections than in historic (1998–2005) seed collections during the first germination season. However, in species with seed dormancy, both peak and final germination after one year burial were higher in recent seed collections than in historic seed collections. Three monthly climate factors had significant effects on final germination in the different species and the timing of most of these factors was during seed development and ripening that suggest that these factors operated through mother plants. In species with seed dormancy, post-first-year germination of buried seeds responded to climate factors in the regeneration niche. Climate factors that significantly affected germination included those that changed over the separation period between historic and recent seed collections. This indicates that short-time climatic changes may have the potential to impact germination in TDF woody species of southern Africa. The germination responses to climate factors were both positive and negative and it is not clear whether these are adaptations or not. Further research is required to assess the adaptive significance of these changes in germination traits in TDF species of southern Africa.