Arshdeep Singh, Sanjiv Kumar, Liang Chen, Montasir Maruf, Peter Lawrence, Min-Hui Lo
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A multi-model analysis reveals a shift in LU-induced climate impacts, from cooling in the past to warming in the future climate across mid-latitude regions. For instance, in North America, LU's effect on air temperature changes from −0.24±0.18°C historically to 0.62±0.27°C in the future during the boreal summer. The CESM2-LE shows a decrease in LU-driven cooling from −0.92±0.09°C in the past to −0.09±0.09°C in future boreal summers in North America. A hydroclimatic perspective linking LU and climate feedback indicates LU changes causing soil moisture drying in the mid-latitude regions. This contrasts with hydrology-only views showing wetter soil conditions due to LU changes. Furthermore, global warming causes widespread drying of soil moisture across various regions. Mid-latitude regions shift from a historically wet regime to a water limited transitional regime in the future climate. This results in reduced evapotranspiration, weakening LU-driven cooling in future climate projections. 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引用次数: 0
摘要
摘要 本研究利用耦合模式相互比较第六阶段--土地利用模式相互比较项目实验中的七个气候模式,比较了历史和未来情景,研究了土地利用(LU)变化对区域气候的影响。相对于工业化前气候期间的土地利用条件,对土地利用变化进行了评估。利用群落地球系统模式第二版大型集合(CESM2-LE)实验,我们将土地利用的影响与自然气候变异性区分开来。我们通过比较有和没有土地利用变化的邻近地区的气候变化影响来评估土地利用的局部影响。此外,我们还进行了有 LU 变化和无 LU 变化的 CESM2 试验,以研究与 LU 相关的气候过程。多模式分析显示,LU 引起的气候影响发生了转变,在整个中纬度地区,过去气候变冷,未来气候变暖。例如,在北美洲的北方夏季,LU 对气温的影响从历史上的 -0.24±0.18°C 变为未来的 0.62±0.27°C。CESM2-LE 显示,在北美洲,LU 驱动的降温从过去的-0.92±0.09°C 下降到未来北方夏季的-0.09±0.09°C。从水文气候角度将土地利用变化与气候反馈联系起来,表明土地利用变化导致中纬度地区土壤水分干燥。这与仅从水文角度看土地利用变化导致土壤更湿润形成鲜明对比。此外,全球变暖导致不同地区的土壤水分普遍干燥。在未来气候中,中纬度地区从历史上的湿润状态转变为限水过渡状态。这导致蒸散量减少,削弱了未来气候预测中由土地利用变化驱动的降温。中纬度地区的土壤湿度与蒸发分量之间存在很强的线性关系。
Land Use Feedback under Global Warming – A Transition from Radiative to Hydrological Feedback Regime
Abstract This study examines the effects of land use (LU) change on regional climate, comparing historical and future scenarios using seven climate models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Phase 6 – Land Use Model Intercomparison Project experiments. LU changes are evaluated relative to land use conditions during the pre-industrial climate. Using the Community Earth System Model version 2 Large Ensemble (CESM2-LE) experiment, we distinguish LU impacts from natural climate variability. We assess LU impact locally by comparing the impacts of climate change in neighboring areas with and without LU changes. Further, we conduct CESM2 experiments with and without LU changes to investigate LU-related climate processes. A multi-model analysis reveals a shift in LU-induced climate impacts, from cooling in the past to warming in the future climate across mid-latitude regions. For instance, in North America, LU's effect on air temperature changes from −0.24±0.18°C historically to 0.62±0.27°C in the future during the boreal summer. The CESM2-LE shows a decrease in LU-driven cooling from −0.92±0.09°C in the past to −0.09±0.09°C in future boreal summers in North America. A hydroclimatic perspective linking LU and climate feedback indicates LU changes causing soil moisture drying in the mid-latitude regions. This contrasts with hydrology-only views showing wetter soil conditions due to LU changes. Furthermore, global warming causes widespread drying of soil moisture across various regions. Mid-latitude regions shift from a historically wet regime to a water limited transitional regime in the future climate. This results in reduced evapotranspiration, weakening LU-driven cooling in future climate projections. A strong linear relationship exists between soil moisture and evaporative fraction in mid-latitudes.
期刊介绍:
The Journal of Climate (JCLI) (ISSN: 0894-8755; eISSN: 1520-0442) publishes research that advances basic understanding of the dynamics and physics of the climate system on large spatial scales, including variability of the atmosphere, oceans, land surface, and cryosphere; past, present, and projected future changes in the climate system; and climate simulation and prediction.